weather

High Elevation Snow Showers Likely Today For Mountains of WNC

The hits just keep coming fo WNC! Today the higher elevations (above 4000’) of WNC will see convective snow showers develop and heavy snow will fall. As these cells exit the high elevations, the snow will turn to rain as it pushes into the valleys around Asheville. A rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out. Below you can see the most recent simulated radar from the Nam 3-km.

Nam 3-km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Nam 3km Snowfall Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Timing

I expect clouds to gather around or just before noon along the NC/TN border as convection is initiated in E TN. Then these cells will move into Asheville and out of the mountains of WNC. So around 12-5pm seems to be the best window to see snowfall in the highest elevation. If you would like to experience it, head up to Roan Mountain… the rates should be fantastic!

Gusty Winds Expected

Winds gusting over 35mph around Asheville will be possible later tonight and into early Thursday morning. Locations above 3500’ in WNC could see gusts over 45mph with this front, so it would be wise to secure outdoor accessories before rain enters WNC. Below you can see the most recent wind gust projections from the Nam 3km.

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Nam 3-km Wind Gusts Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Frost Expected This Weekend

A frost will be likely both Saturday and Sunday mornings this weekend so it would be wish this week to get a plan in place to cover sensitive vegetation. Below you can see the most recent GFS model projection for low temps on Sunday AM. Yes that would shatter a record for that particular day which is 32 degrees.

Low Temps Sunday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Frost Damage

Frost damage will certainly be possible to many delicate trees. Many farmers will wet their crops the night before the frost, and you can also use a bed sheet to cover and protect vegetation. Below is an anomaly map showing how many degrees from average locations around WNC are projected to be Saturday morning.

GFS Temp Anomaly Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Mild Week In Store For WNC With Highs Each Day In The 60's, Rain Returns To End Week

A somewhat dry beginning to the week is finally in-store for all of WNC, and that is a relief too many who work outside for a living. I myself am glad to see a small drying period so that we can begin carving out a foundation on a new home that I am building for a customer. Most models only show scattered showers tomorrow and into Wednesday, but there is disagreement about rainfall chances again moving into the latter half of the week.. but overall the beginning of the week appears to contain less precipitation compared to the beginning of the previous 4 weeks.

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Model Disparity Regarding End Of Week Rainfall

Right now models are somewhat far apart with the total amount of precipitation that moves into WNC later this week. There appears to be good agreement that this first batch of rainfall that moves through on Tuesday and into Wednesday will only be in the form of scattered showers, but as I stated above some disagreement remains regarding the end of the week around WNC. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km, which is a great short range model. As depicted, no significant rainfall registers at the Asheville Airport on this past run through Wednesday. Many locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment could pick up a half inch to an inch of rainfall, but it appears drying will occur due to downsloping as the moisture approaches The French Broad River Valley.

NAM 3km Precipitation Totals Through Wednesday Afternoon

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Long Range Precipitation

Looking ahead towards the end of this week, models have another batch of rainfall that appears to move in sometime later during the day on Thursday. There is some disagreement though on just how much precipitation will fall into Saturday. Currently the GFS models is the most bullish with over 1” of rainfall expected to fall over many locations throughout WNC. Below you can see the most recent run.

GFS Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Now compare that with what the European model is projecting, and you can see the disparity. Looking below at the most recent European run you can see how the orientation of precipitation is more from the West compared to the Southwest so the NC/TN border receive more rainfall. The GFS has the precipitation oriented a bit more SW, and that wrings out moisture in those far SW WNC Counties.

Euro Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Model Disparity Moving Into The Weekend As Well

There is disagreement regarding this weekends weather as well among global models. The GFS brings the system in a bit later compared to the European model and that creates havoc with a weekend forecast. If the GFS is to be believed, rainfall will only be likely on Sunday, and another choice Saturday appears to be on tap! But if you contrast that with the European model, one finds that the case for clear weather is not so certain. The European model keys in on this trailing wave and actually brings multiple rounds of rainfall on both Saturday & Sunday. Below you can see the chart comparison between the two differing models.

GFS Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

Euro Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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More Info Needed For Weekend Forecast

I will need a bit more information regarding this weekend to make an accurate forecast, but what doesn’t appear likely is wintry weather for most. Those chances are greatly diminishing as we approach mid March, but snow can still happen. It does appears as though we are dealing with three pieces of energy over the next 7 days. Frost and freezes are almost certain into the end of March, but warmer temps will also increase in frequency. Check back for more info regarding the upcoming forecast as I nail down the details!

Warmer & Drier Conditions Expected In WNC During Last Week Of Summer

That’s right, Fall officially begins on September 22.. but this week won’t feel much like a prequel.  Warm conditions are expected for all of WNC this week, with highs in the mid 80’s.  A few pop-up showers could be possible, but models appear less than optimistic that these will be widespread on any afternoon this week.  That is a great thing because our stream and rivers need to drain!  Some locations in the area especially around Pensacola, NC & Fairview, NC saw flooding from Florence, and more rainfall would just complicate those cleanups.

 

Are The Tropics Still Active? 

We are seeing a relaxation of activity in the tropics currently, so for the next 7-10 days.. there appears to be no immediate threat to the US.  That doesn’t mean that we are out of the woods this tropical season, it just means the atmosphere is less likely to produce tropical development over the next couple of weeks.  We can still get Hurricanes into November, so this season is far from over. 

 

More Rain Likely Next Week

Long range models indicate a strong front pushing across the US early next week.  This could bring the threat of severe storms along with it for our area.  It’s still a bit far out to forecast for this time frame, but know that I have my eye on it.  Muggy conditions will likely be the story though ahead of the front. 

Check back for another article soon detailing your weekend forecast!

 

Wednesday Weather Forecast & A Look Ahead To This Weekend

Wednesday Weather Forecast & A Look Ahead To This Weekend

Pop-Up Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon for many locations around WNC as daytime heating ignites a few updrafts.  Some of these cells could go severe, with gusty winds, and isolated hail.  Below is a radar simulation from the most recent (11z) HRRR run.  You can see that will ample humidity at the surface, various storms develop and move to the Northwest.  These cells do not appear to be long lived, but some locations could see rainfall rates of over 1" per hour.