A somewhat dry beginning to the week is finally in-store for all of WNC, and that is a relief too many who work outside for a living. I myself am glad to see a small drying period so that we can begin carving out a foundation on a new home that I am building for a customer. Most models only show scattered showers tomorrow and into Wednesday, but there is disagreement about rainfall chances again moving into the latter half of the week.. but overall the beginning of the week appears to contain less precipitation compared to the beginning of the previous 4 weeks.
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Model Disparity Regarding End Of Week Rainfall
Right now models are somewhat far apart with the total amount of precipitation that moves into WNC later this week. There appears to be good agreement that this first batch of rainfall that moves through on Tuesday and into Wednesday will only be in the form of scattered showers, but as I stated above some disagreement remains regarding the end of the week around WNC. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km, which is a great short range model. As depicted, no significant rainfall registers at the Asheville Airport on this past run through Wednesday. Many locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment could pick up a half inch to an inch of rainfall, but it appears drying will occur due to downsloping as the moisture approaches The French Broad River Valley.
NAM 3km Precipitation Totals Through Wednesday Afternoon
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Long Range Precipitation
Looking ahead towards the end of this week, models have another batch of rainfall that appears to move in sometime later during the day on Thursday. There is some disagreement though on just how much precipitation will fall into Saturday. Currently the GFS models is the most bullish with over 1” of rainfall expected to fall over many locations throughout WNC. Below you can see the most recent run.
GFS Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Now compare that with what the European model is projecting, and you can see the disparity. Looking below at the most recent European run you can see how the orientation of precipitation is more from the West compared to the Southwest so the NC/TN border receive more rainfall. The GFS has the precipitation oriented a bit more SW, and that wrings out moisture in those far SW WNC Counties.
Euro Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Model Disparity Moving Into The Weekend As Well
There is disagreement regarding this weekends weather as well among global models. The GFS brings the system in a bit later compared to the European model and that creates havoc with a weekend forecast. If the GFS is to be believed, rainfall will only be likely on Sunday, and another choice Saturday appears to be on tap! But if you contrast that with the European model, one finds that the case for clear weather is not so certain. The European model keys in on this trailing wave and actually brings multiple rounds of rainfall on both Saturday & Sunday. Below you can see the chart comparison between the two differing models.
GFS Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Euro Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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More Info Needed For Weekend Forecast
I will need a bit more information regarding this weekend to make an accurate forecast, but what doesn’t appear likely is wintry weather for most. Those chances are greatly diminishing as we approach mid March, but snow can still happen. It does appears as though we are dealing with three pieces of energy over the next 7 days. Frost and freezes are almost certain into the end of March, but warmer temps will also increase in frequency. Check back for more info regarding the upcoming forecast as I nail down the details!
