asheville

Blossom Killing Freeze Expected Tonight Around WNC, Temps Will Dip Into Teens

Any trees that were foolish enough to attempt their bloom out process will be halted immediately tonight around WNC as temperatures dip into the teens at most locations. These type temperatures will be devastating to early fruit trees, and could really cause harm to fruit trees throughout the southeast. Peach trees in SC & GA will take a hit, as well as strawberry crops in the area. Its sad because this is nothing we have control over, yet many farmers rely on these trees for their livelihood. Below you can see the most recent 3km NAM temperature depiction.

6z NAM 3km Temperatures For Wednesday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com

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Higher Elevations Could Reach Zero

Some locations above 5500’ could fall all the way below zero tonight as a strong arctic air mass entrenches itself. Lots of trees have bloomed out even at these elevations, and sadly this will have an effect of their progression this season. Wild flowers will be less vibrant, and blooms will wither and fall off.

Scattered Snow Showers Cannot Be Ruled Out Friday AM

There is some model disagreement regarding how precipitation will begin Friday morning as this cold front retreats and precipitation moves into the area. The European models is insistent that cold air will still be in place at the onset of precipitation and a dusting will be possible around WNC, but the GFS says that that cold wedge will retreat before meaningful precipitation moves into WNC. I have my eye on Friday morning and will update you when the picture becomes a bit more clear!



Snow Showers Possible Sunday Around WNC

A clipper system will push through WNC on Sunday, bringing with it cold temperatures, gusty winds, and even some snow showers for many in Western North Carolina. Short range models are just beginning to resolve this solution, but as we progress towards Sunday, I expect to have a better idea of how much if any snow will accumulate. Surface temperatures may rise close to 40 on Sunday around Asheville, but upper level temperatures will be very cold, so that increases the likelihood that flakes will not melt as they approach the valley surface. Most models show very limited if any accumulation with this event, but sometimes with these smaller events here in WNC, the models struggle to resolve the solution until 24-36 hours out. So what you should take away from this, is that windy conditions are likely today as temperatures fall throughout the day. Snow showers can’t be ruled in the higher elevations through Friday. Then a clipper system will move through the area beginning Sunday. Join me live in the AshevilleWX App at tonight at 8pm for a discussion of what the most recent models show, and my thoughts on how the event will progress!

6z Nam Precipitation Depiction Early Sunday Afternoon Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com

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Wednesday Weather Forecast & A Look Ahead To This Weekend

Wednesday Weather Forecast & A Look Ahead To This Weekend

Pop-Up Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon for many locations around WNC as daytime heating ignites a few updrafts.  Some of these cells could go severe, with gusty winds, and isolated hail.  Below is a radar simulation from the most recent (11z) HRRR run.  You can see that will ample humidity at the surface, various storms develop and move to the Northwest.  These cells do not appear to be long lived, but some locations could see rainfall rates of over 1" per hour.