Strong Front To Bring Flooding Rainfall To WNC Tuesday
Models continue to show a strong front moving through WNC all day Tuesday. Scattered showers will begin just after midnight with the rainfall intensifying tomorrow afternoon as the main line move through. Flash flooding will certainly be a concern with this system as over 2” of rainfall is expected for most locations around WNC. This rainfall will come quickly and be very heavy at times. Ponding on roadways is imminent as well as some localized flooding. Below you can see the total precipitation projected from the most recent NAM 3km model. Notice how widespread the totals are compared to a typical rainfall event. The strong upper level dynamics with this system will spread the rainfall out and while locations along the NC/SC line will see the most precipitation, locations along the NC/TN line will not be left out, as is the case sometimes with the southerly flow. Ill discuss timing and what to look for next down below.
NAM 3km Rainfall Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Timing Of Rainfall
Below I have the radar depiction from the most recent Nam3km model. This will give you a general idea of when the main line of storms will move through. Notice the pop up nature of the storms before the main line moves in between 1-3pm. These pop ups will provide heavy rain to those who encounter them, but could be scattered. As we progress towards the afternoon, some sun could pop out and skies will really darken before the main line moves through. Check out the radar depiction below.
NAM 3km Radar Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Northwest Flow To Follow
Yes the dreaded word that most valley snow lovers hate to hear. Elevations above 3500’ on the NC/TN State Line will see snowfall pick up on Tuesday evening after the frontal passage. 2”-4” could be possible above 5000’, with 1”-3” of accumulation possible between 3500’-5000’. This of course will not apply to elevations at these heights around the Highlands/Cashiers areas who do not typically see much from Northwest Flow. Below you can see the projected snowfall totals from the NAM 3km. Nothing significant, but another nickel & dime event for the ski areas.
Massive Cold On Long Range Models
Yes you are going to begin to hear the buzz word of winter “Polar Vortex” begin to be thrown around. It will be no secret that a large displacement of arctic air is going to be displaced down into the US during the later period of January. Now what does that mean for Asheville? To be honest I don’t know yet. It could mean a very cold 3-4 day period, but it also could mean a chance at some snowfall. I think the incoming pattern to end the month of January could be one of the better patterns we have seen for snowfall in Asheville in the past 2-3 years. Now that doesn’t say much, but we have two things that appear to be working, and that is moisture and cold. The details will sort themselves out over the next 10-15 days so check back soon I will keep you updated!
