Ian Could Bring Heavy Rain, High Winds To WNC Next Weekend
Tropical Storm Ian will continue to gain strength over the next several days as it traverses the Gulf. A Cuba landfall could interrupt its center of circulation momentarily, but most models have it regaining at least some of its strength as it reenters the Gulf of Mexico. How strong Ian gets is still yet to be determined, but most models seem to indicate that WNC will see some sort of effect from this storm. Its still too far out to nail down any specifics like how much rainfall or how strong winds will be, but as it appears now, the storm could weaken just before landfall. That would greatly expand the wind field and also the rain shield of the storm. With upscoping flow from the south being enhanced by mountain flow, flash flooding is becoming a concern of my for Friday and into Saturday.
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Model Data
You will see an immense amount of data on this storm as it approaches the United States. It could be a very strong Hurricane, but most models don’t show it sustaining strong power for the duration of its trip to the US. As it approaches the FL Coast on many models, the storm shears apart. Some models show it as only a Tropical Storm as it makes landfall, but for us here in WNC we know that Tropical Storm rain can bring big problems. Below you can see the most recent radar depiction from the HWRF Model. This would be Friday morning.
HWRF Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Track of Ian
Below you can see the National Hurricane Centers Forecasted track for Ian. As I have said before, there is still a good bit of uncertainty with the track and intensity, but we are still 4-5 days out from the storms arrival. These storms tend to track right into WNC from my experience. A lot can change over the next several days, but it would be good to have your high water and power outage plans in place for next weekend.
Courtesy of The National Hurricane Center https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Will Ian Affect Leaf Season For WNC?
The answer to this questions is yes, most certainly if it tracks over WNC. Leaves are already beginning to fall around WNC so any type of high wind event is going to knock a large amount off. Also, a heavy rain event could delay some color change. Drier weather is consider ideal for leaf change. Unfortantly for leaf lovers this is not what you want to see coming at the beginning of October. I will need to adjust my Vibrancy Scale down to a 6 if this storm tracks correctly. Check back soon for more info as we track Ian and where the storm will head!
