Heavy Rainfall From Tropical Storm Nicole Moves In Late Thursday

A tropical storm has developed off the coast of Florida and will bring heavy rainfall to the Sunshine State over the next two days. Then that rainfall will make a beeline towards WNC according to the most recent model data. Several models show the remanent low pressure moving right over WNC and that could bring 2”-4” of rainfall very quickly to the area! Flash flooding will certainly be possible with this rain coming very quickly. Much of the rain that falls will quickly turn into runoff on the very dry ground and that could increase flash flood threats.

How Much Rainfall?

Model data still differs significantly, but most models have the majority of WNC seeing between 1.5” and 2.5” of rainfall between Friday and Saturday morning, with isolated higher totals. This rain will be heavy and could make it difficult to drive at times. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely as the day progresses on Friday. It will be a great day to be inside and enjoy a great movie! There is still a great amount of detail to be hammered out with the system, but right now it appears as though we will finally get a decent rainfall. This will certainly help drought conditions.

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Cold Front Coming

A massive cold front will move in behind Tropical Storm Nicole, and it will certainly bring a shock to the system. Arriving early Sunday morning, this cold front will entrench itself across the SE and temps will struggle to get out of the 50’s on Sunday this weekend. Then the pattern gets very interesting and some form of wintry weather could be possible for WNC!

Long Range Models Hinting At Wintry Solution

Looking at the European Ensemble, it appears as though our first shot at wintry weather for WNC could be around the 15th-18th time frame. As you can see below the European Ensemble has several members that are showing the possibility of wintry weather near the middle of the month. Now this will certainly change, but I have been watching this trend over the past 2-3 days and there will certainly be a shot for at least the high elevations to see snowfall here over the next two weeks. Stay tuned for more info as data continue to be refined!