Northwest Flow To Bring Heavy Snow Friday To NC/TN Border, Some Accumulation Possible Around Asheville
A strong low pressure will bring rainfall and some thunder to WNC on Thursday as it pushes through, then backside Northwest Flow will be enhanced by an upper level low that trails the systems and moves overhead. As moisture is enhances along the NC/TN border some snow flurries or even scattered snow showers could be possible around the Asheville area. With timing of moisture arriving lining up with sunrise, this will be the best chance yet for snow lovers to see snow showers so far this winter! Below is what the most recent GFS model shows occurring at 10am on Friday morning.
GFS Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
How Long Will Snowfall Last?
Well that all depends on your locations. If you live in Hendersonville I would only expect some token snow flurries or a stray snow shower during the day on Friday. If you live closer to Asheville or even North of Asheville, you could see persistent snow showers even through the morning on Saturday. If you live above 3500’ within 15 miles of the NC/TN border, you could see snow until later Saturday night! Below is the European model for comparison. There is good consensus among the major models that a high end northwest flow event will occur Friday and into Saturday.
How Much Accumulation Is Possible?
Upwards of 8”-12” will be possible along the NC/TN border above 4000’, but as elevation tapers down to the valley floors, only a dusting-1” will be likely around Asheville. With the timing of arrival being during the day, the sun will also be a limiting factor. Accumulation will likely pick up as the sun sets Friday evening, but the question will be how much moisture remains to traverse the mountains. Below is the 06z GFS snowfall accumulation map to give you a better idea of what totals are possible.
Map Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
How Much Rain Is Possible On Thursday?
Both European & GFS models have less than an inch of rain falling from the initial front. This rain looks to arrive around 4-6pm on Thursday, but that could change as we progress towards the storm. All and all it won’t be a complete washout. Below is the GFS totals for rainfall through the event. Check back soon for more info as we progress towards Friday!
GFS Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
