Short range models are showing the chance for snow showers again throughout portions of WNC late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Moisture does appear to be rather light, but nonetheless this is something I have my eye on as we progress through next week. Below you can see the depiction from the most recent NAM model. Temperatures are expected to be very borderline for locations below 3000’, but a rain or rain to snow mix will be possible as dry air works out of the atmosphere.
NAM Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Accumulation?
After this last event, I am hesitant to even talk about accumulation. Even when models show significant totals, it does not come to fruition. At the last moment, a short range model will detect an anomaly and then the picture will become clear. For this event though, I am not thinking big accumulation will be possible. Depending on temperatures, some isolated locations could see a dusting to 1”, but more information will be needed to make that call. Below check out the snowfall map from the NAM. It is very close to a snow sounding for the Asheville area late Monday night.
NAM Snowfall Accumulation Map Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Long Range Models
The most recent European model has also shown this chance for light snow showers across WNC on its most recent run.. Accumulation is not really showing up, but it brings snow showers into the tip of WNC during the morning hours on Monday. Then it spreads to the rest of WNC by noon. Temperatures will be marginal, and accumulation will not be likely during hours when the sun is shining, but this does appear to be another shot at snow showers for the area. Check out the European model progression below.
European model Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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GFS Model Data
Now compare the above with the most recent GFS data. The GFS is much drier, and therefor there is very limited precipitation that shows up. The GFS did better then any other model on this past storm so that must be taken into consideration!
GFS Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Atmospheric Data
The column over Asheville when precipitation moves in on Monday will be conducive to what to wetbulbing. This is when the temperature at the surface is above freezing, but dry air aloft allows cooling to occur and keeps frozen hydrometers from melting as they fall. Eventually this dry air becomes saturated when enough precipitation falls through it, but until that happens snowfall can occur at the surface, even when temperatures are above 32 degrees. Check out the sounding below from the most recent NAM 3km as precipitation moves into Asheville. There is a chance that the precipitation that falls will be in the form of snow. If that happens to fall during dark hors, then the chance for accumulation will greatly increase.
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Upcoming Pattern
A cooler pattern is on tap for WNC as we progress towards next weekend, and disappointed snow lovers will have at least a couple more chances to see snowfall this year around WNC. I have my eye on the time frame of Jan 19th-21st for another storm to move through the area. This will follow the cold front I have pulled for the GFS Ensemble. Check back for more details as we progress towards the next pattern change!
GEFS Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
