Snowfall Totals On The Rise As Winter Storm Approaches WNC
Currently located over Texas, the surface low we have been following is continuing to slowly move toward WNC. Around 7-9pm tomorrow night, a few snow showers could be possible. As the night progresses and we get into the early hours of Friday morning, the snowfall will really pick up. Heavy banding will likely occur as the Upper Level Low goes negative tilt and the surface low strengthens. Thundersnow could even be possible. How long the snowfall lasts is still somewhat up in the air, but below is a map Evan & I have produced based off our most recent thoughts.
Updated Snowfall Map Created By Evan Fisher In Conjunction With Meteorologist Hunter Ward
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Model Data
Models continue to refine this solution, but it could become a nowcast event where totals change up until the event. The European model has been rock solid with its snowfall totals over the past 4 days and has yet to waver. It has a widespread 6”-10” for most in WNC. This could end up being one of the better snowstorms for many in WNC. Unfortunately there will be locations that do not do so well in the SW tip of WNC. Yes, I know these areas are typically left out, but they could still see some snowfall! Below is the progression of the storm from the most recent NAM 3km.
NAM 3km Precipitation Projection Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Model Snowfall Maps
Once again, these maps should be taken with a grain of salt… the maps that Evan and I produce compile all of this data as well they take into account our years of forecasting experience. I show you these to show you the spread among models. Typically this close to an event there would be a general consensus of where the heaviest snow will fall, but that has yet to happen. Lets start with the European model.
Euro Snowfall Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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And now lets compare that with what the most recent run of the GFS has shown. Note that this is the first run that the GFS has shown meaningful snowfall for the Asheville area.
GFS Snowfall Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Here is one last map from the NAM 3km that show how isolated heavy snowfall totals could be. This is a very difficult forecast and some adjustment will still need to made to this forecast as we progress. Check back soon for another update.
NAM 3km Snowfall Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
