A strong Upper Level Low will capture a surface low that meanders along the Gulf and transfers to the Atlantic early Friday morning. High end dynamics will create an environment conducive to snowfall across all of WNC as this occurs, and some decent snowfall accumulation could occur. Below you can see my most recent snowfall projection map that Evan Fisher has put together.
Map Produced By Evan Fisher In Conjunction With Meteorologist Hunter Ward
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Model Data
Short range models are beginning to get a handle on this solution, but there are still several details to be hammered out. Currently models are very spread regarding snowfall totals, so some adjustments may need to be made in the coming day to my forecast map. Below you can see the storm progression on the most NAM 12km.
Nam 12km Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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NAM 12km Snowfall Map
Below you can see the most recent NAM snowfall map. This is just one run, but as we get into range data will be refined and totals will change. Right now, I am siding with the NAM and the European model to forecast this storm.
Nam 12km Snowfall Map Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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European Model Projections
The Euro has a similar look to the Nam model, but with slightly weaker dynamics. Thus there is slightly less precipitation. Locations around Brevard and Hendersonville though have consistently been the Jackpot for snowfall among models. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 6”+ in many locations around Transylvania Co. Below you can see the precipitation depiction from the most recent European model.
European Model Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Euro Snowfall Map
Below you can see the most recent European model snowfall map projection. This changes every 12 hours, but it will give you a decent idea of what long range models are showing.
Euro Snowfall Map Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Timing
The timing of snowfall for this event is still somewhat up in the air, but it does appear to arrive at a prime time to accumulation. Locations around Franklin, NC and in the SW tip of NC will begin to see snowfall around 6-7pm and then snowfall will move West. Around Asheville look for snowfall to begin around 9-10pm Thursday night, and it should snow throughout the night.
Live Update Tomorrow At 7pm
Join Evan & I live tomorrow evening on Facebook at 7pm for the most recent information regarding the progression of this system!
