Beginning tomorrow, rain will turn to snow showers in the higher elevations as a weak piece of energy moves over the mountains. Some locations above 3500’ even saw a dusting of snow last night! Then we will move on to talking about the possibility of back to back Gulf Lows. First let’s start with the Tuesday and into Wednesday event.
Shortwave Brings Accumulating Snowfall To Elevations above 3000’
A weak frontal passage will run the trough laid down by a cold front that exits WNC tomorrow. Scattered rain showers will be likely around valley locations, but above 3000’ a couple of inches of snowfall could be possible. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km.
Precip Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Snowfall accumulation will be likely above 3000’ in WNC, with some high elevation locations seeing several inches. Check out the most recent NAM 3km snowfall map. It does have a small dusting even down to locations like Weaverville late Tuesday night, so watch for that as it could be possible!
Nam 3km Snowfall Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Event #2 Gulf Low & Upper Level Low Thursday-Friday
The second event I am focusing on could very well be the main event with this pattern change. Most all global models indicate that a stout Upper Level Low will interact with a weak surface low that meanders from the Gulf to the Atlantic. Some models have been speeding up this solution over the past 24 hours, and that would indicate the storm would be coming in during the night time hours compared to peak daytime. This will affect accumulation totals. Over the next 48 hours I will do my best to detect when the Upper Level Low will arrive, and how that will correlate to snowfall in your backyard. Below you can see the most recent progression with this system on the European model.
Euro Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Snowfall Maps
I like to give you an idea of what each model is depicting snowfall map-wise so below I will detail out what each model shows currently. Note that these will certainly change as we progress towards the event. This is just some of the data I am pouring over to give you the best possible forecast. First lets show you what the European model shows.
Euro Snowfall Map Courtesy Of Pivotalweather.com
GFS American Model
The GFS has a similar setup with a bit more cold air to work with. Therefore we will see high snowfall totals with its projection from the 6z run compared to the Euro above. The amount of interaction that occurs with the surface low and the Upper Level Low will determine how much precipitation falls in WNC. The dynamics will be there for a decent snowstorm, temperatures will be very borderline though so I am watching closely. Here is what the GFS depicts to occur.
GFS Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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GFS Snowfall Totals Through Friday Afternoon Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
Event #3 Trailing Gulf Low
Below you can see the third event I have my eye on. The evolution of this event is still very much in question, but what is concerning to me is that we have another Gulf Low showing some type of interaction with an Upper Level Low. It appears that a pattern is becoming established for the foreseeable future and there will be several shots for accumulating snowfall for WNC through the end of January. Check back for more updates, and check Facebook I will begin doing live updates for these events over the next couple of nights.
GFS Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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