While details remain somewhat variable in the long range, a Gulf Low does appear to bring the chances for snowfall to many again around WNC on Friday and into Saturday. 5 days out there is still a great deal of uncertainty, but I feel confident enough to alert you of the potential threat that could be imposing upon WNC as we end the upcoming work week. All major global models show a weak surface low meandering from the Gulf and transferring to the Atlantic on Friday during the day. The wildcard will be when the Upper Level Low catches up to the surface low. When that occurs, moisture will be thrown to the backside, and snowfall will ensue over locations where that moisture is transported too. Below take a look at the storm progression from the most recent GFS model run.
GFS Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Model Comparison
Alright, so I noted above that most all global long range models were showing this snowfall and I will detail them out below. First off lets show you the European model. Both the GFS and European model have been showing this system with some degree of difference over the past 3 days. Backside snowfall has been more prevalent on the GFS, whereas the Euro has shown more front end moisture. Check out the euro below.
Euro courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Canadian Model
My third model of choice in my long range progression would indeed be the Canadian model. Often cooler than the other models, this model does a great job of identifying northwest flow threats before others. As you can see, just like the others, the Canadian shows a low pressure sweeping down and interacting with the Gulf, the progressing towards the Southeast. As that occurs, it is turned up the coast and captured by and upper level low. This cold air aloft along with excessive dynamics will be a powerful combo and will likely break out snow showers all across WNC.
Canadian Model Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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German ICON Model Progression
Below is another model that I like to use for comparison. This is the German ICON model and you have heard me talk about it from time to time. It along with the Canadian, European, & American models all show some form of accumulating snowfall for most of WNC. Does this actually play out? Well there are a lot of details to still be managed, but this is a good sign for snow lovers.
ICON Model Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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How Much Accumulation?
These details will not be hammered out for quite sometime, but if you are looking for a timeframe of what to expect, I will likely be releasing a projected accumulation map sometime on Wednesday. Depending on model consistent will depend on how quickly I get that first projection map out.
Who Has The Best Chance To See Accumulation?
Tough call right now, but the obvious answer is locations above 3500’. Valleys around WNC will also see snowfall and depending on the timing, that will determine accumulation threat. Locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment can receive snowfall from these type events as well and the dynamics will allow locations like Brevard, NC & Hendersonville to get in on the snowfall action. Stay tuned, I will have a lot more information to come regarding this event!
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