A stout low pressure will bring precipitation to the mountains of WNC by way of a couple of rounds this weekend. Initially we will see a tongue of precipitation develop tomorrow morning that could bring a chance of snow showers to many. Then some clearing will occur and the main ice threat will move in Saturday afternoon/evening before icy conditions move in. Below you can see the depiction of the most recent NAM 3km. There are several details still to resolve with this solution, and a couple of degrees could change the entire perception of this storm. I’ll do my best below to detail out what to expect and what will be possible at your location.
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NAM 3km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Will Snow Be Possible?
Yes, several locations will begin as snow at the onset, especially in the higher elevations of WNC above 3000’. As you move East, the chances for snow showers will increase, due to proximity to the high pressure that is providing the cold air at the surface. Above 3500’ I think 1”-3” of snow could be possible before ice becomes the prevalent form of precipitation. Below that, snowflakes will certainly have the chance to mix in or fall for 15-30 minutes, but it appears that sleet, rain, or freezing rain will follow. Check out the ice accretion map produced by the NAM. This should be taken with a grain of salt, but it gives you an idea of where models are showing Ice accumulation.
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Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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NAM Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
Northwest Flow Snow Likely Monday
Models continue to indicate that as the low pressure moves up the Atlantic Coast, it will strengthen significantly. As this occurs, backside moisture will enhance as it flows through WNC on Monday. Some convective snow showers could be possible from this, and 3”-6” of accumulation will certainly be possible above 3500’. For elevations below that, these convection showers make accumulation difficult to nail down, but an isolated 1”-3” will be possible in locations like Haywood Co, who typically do well in NWF snow events. For Buncombe, I do believe these showers will break containment, and most will see snow fall during the day on Monday. Sun angle will make accumulation during the day difficult, but if the flow can persist through the afternoon hours and into sundown.. we will likely see accumulation even in valley locations. Check out the snowfall map below produced by the most recent NAM. I will need more information on this flow to make further determinations, but just know that a high end Northwest flow event will be possible on Monday. Check back soon for more information!
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