Another chance for snow showers will follow a brief rain event on Wednesday. Models indicate that as a low pressure transfers from the Appalachian to the Coast, some form of snow banding could occur as the sun is setting Wednesday. This would be a rain changing to snow type event with northwest flow following, so I am not expecting significant accumulation in the valleys of WNC below 2500’, but an isolated dusting to 1” could be possible. Above 2500’, northwest flow could bring another 1”-3” of snowfall as the day progresses Thursday. Even higher totals of 2”-4” could be found above 5000’. Below you can see the progression of the most recent NAM 3km.
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3km NAM Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
NAM 3km Snowfall Map
The most recent NAM 3km also produced a decent swath of snowfall through WNC as the front exits. This should be taken with a grain of salt, and I will do a live update later this evening with my thoughts.. but this gives you an idea of what the models are showing.
NAM 3km Snowfall Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Backside Northwest Flow
Northwest flow will follow the deformation feature that will develop as the front exits. Winds will pick up for the Northwest and backside moisture will strain out along the NC/TN border. Some models indicate that these snow showers will push into the valley locations below 2500’, North of I-40. Another dusting could be possible in populous valley locations of WNC as you wake up Thursday morning, and those who live above 3000’ will certainly wake up to snowfall. Here is the most recent HRRR model precipitation depiction below showing first the initial push of moisture, then the following Northwest flow punch.
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HRRR 12z Model Precipitation Depiction
HRRR Model Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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HRRR 12z Snowfall Map
HRRR 48-Hour Snowfall Map Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
Canadian Short Range Model Snowfall
Below is another short range model that I like to observe. As you can see it shows accumulation of around 1” for the Asheville airport through the whole event. This is not out of the question. Also notice how portions of ENC get in on the snowfall action as this low pressure ramps up off the coast and a deformation feature develops.
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RDPS Snowfall Accumulation Projection Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
Live Update Tonight At 7pm
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