One more round of snow showers will be likely before the weekend comes to a close, and that chance will enter WNC later this evening. Another piece of energy will run the trough that has already been laid down, and that energy will collide with WNC. A convective nature to these snow showers will be possible, just like yesterday.. and some isolated locations could receive a dusting +. Check out the most recent HRRR run below.
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HRRR Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Accumulation?
Locations above 3000’ will likely see another 1”-3” with locations above 4500’ seeing even slightly higher totals. Below 3000’ accumulation will be isolated, but if banding sets up correctly some valley locations below 3000’ could see as much as an inch or two of accumulation. This snow will fall in the evening/night time hours so accumulation will be much more likely compared to yesterdays event. Below you can see where the HRRR model believes accumulation is most likely to occur.
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HRRR Snowfall Accumulation Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Other Short Range Model Data
Next let’s look at the most recent 3km NAM model. Notice how it is not nearly as bullish on the snow showers developing like the HRRR. It will be interesting to see the next couple of HRRR runs to see if it sticks with this more aggressive solution. It does appear likely though that some valley locations will see snowfall tonight.
NAM 3km Precip Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Conclusion
Locations above 4500’ will likely see 3”-6” from this flow. If you live between 3000’ & 4500’ in WNC then you can expect 1”-3” of accumulation. Below that is the real wild card where a forecast can easily bust. If banding sets up correctly someone below 3000’ could easily see 2”-3” of snowfall. Right now, the best chance for that to occur appears to be somewhere over SW WNC. Locations like Bryson City, Cherokee, Franklin, Sylva, or Murphy could be the low elevation winners with this energy, just like yesterday. Make sure and post your reports to The AshevilleWX Weather Community on Facebook! Check back soon for more updates!
