Models continue to refine a somewhat wintry solution for the mountains of WNC into Saturday evening as an Upper Level Low is set to push through the area. Snow will mainly stay confined to the higher elevations along the NC/TN border, but a few snow showers could breaking containment and even pushing into the Downtown Asheville area. Below you can see a map I have produced indicated(red circle) where I think the best chance for snowfall will be at.
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What Do Models Show?
Both the GFS and Euro show some amount of backside moisture that will be available, but the GFS is somewhat more bullish. Below you can see the GFS precipitation depiction around 8pm on Saturday night.
GFS Precipitation Depiction Saturday Night Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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The European model does not bring thorough the amount of moisture that the GFS shows, but it does still have some backside northwest flow action. Below is the depiction of the European model at the same time frame.
Euro Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
from the above map, you can see that this will not be a very impactful event for most. Locations above 3500’ could see up to 3” of accumulation through Sunday afternoon though. Temperatures during the day on Sunday will be mild and only reach into the mid 40’s. Then my eyes turn to another system that is expected to affect WNC on Tuesday Morning.
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Another Front Pushes Through On Tuesday/Wednesday
Looking ahead, some models indicate that a chance for some overrunning precipitation could occur, and that would increase snowfall chances around WNC. The GFS indicates that this front end thumb could be possible, but the European model is somewhat warmer at the onset of precipitation. What you need to know is that I have my eye on the timeframe, and will update you if necessary regarding this second system.
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