An Upper Level Low will likely move through the mountain of WNC on Saturday afternoon, bringing with it the chance for snow showers for many around the area. Models are still refining a solution, but it does appear possible that many locations near the NC/TN border could see snow showers. This would include the Downtown Asheville area. Below you can see the most recent GFS model depiction at 6pm on Saturday evening.
GFS Precipitation Depiction Saturday Evening Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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As you can see, there could me some mixing issues in the lower valleys, but elevations above 3000’ especially along the NC/TN border stand the best chance of seeing accumulation. Lets compare that with what the European models show for a similar time frame.
Euro Precipitation Depiction Early Sunday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Will Snow Accumulate
A dusting could be possible north of I-40, but the best chance for accumulating snowfall will be above 3000’ within 15 miles of the NC/TN border. Below you can see a map that I have produced showing where I think that snow showers will be most likely at this point in time. These topographical maps will be a new way that I display my thoughts on some weather events.
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Not Everyone Will See Snow Showers
Locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment typically do not see more than a flurry or two from system like this. Also the direction that the Upper Level Low will move through WNC is not conducive for snowfall around the Escarpment. Locations along the Escarpment include Brevard, Rosman, Hendersonville, Flat Rock ect. Unfortunately for snow lovers in these areas, this will not be moving in from the Gulf, which is typically where snow moves in for these locations.
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Rain Moves In Thursday
A frontal passage will occur on Thursday before the Upper Level Low moves through, and that will bring with it the chance for over a half inch of rainfall thru Saturday AM. This does not appear to be a washout by any means, but it will moisten the ground again around WNC. The main focus though will be on how quickly the temperature drops on the backside as the sun sets Saturday afternoon. Check back soon for another update as more data comes in regarding the progression of the Upper Level Low.
