A strong arctic front will move through WNC Sunday and into Monday, bringing with it cold temperatures, and the chance for some snow shower development on the tail end of the front. This setup is extremely complex and I feel that models are just now beginning to catch hold of the solution.. so don’t be surprised if we see some snowfall around WNC Monday night and into Tuesday. Bear with me as I put together this difficult forecast, and attempt to navigate the various solutions that models are producing. Below you can see the precipitation depiction map from the most recent 12z GFS run. It continues to resolve an area of overrunning precipitation that is enhanced by SW upslope flow. This area of moisture develops over a nearly frozen column, and a rain/snow mix looks possible. These models has shown this trend for the past 4 runs, and is not backing down. As soon as high resolution short range models get into range, we will have a better idea of how this will play out aloft, and how much precipitation will actually be available.
12z GFS Precipitation Depiction For Early Tuesday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Here is the 12z 3km nam as well. It is not in range just yet, but you can see the precipitation beginning to bank up on the Blue Ridge Escarpment . I expect to have a more clear picture sometime tomorrow, but for now know that the possibility for some snow does exist. Join me live tonight in the AshevilleWX App at 8pm or shortly after that on Facebook Live!
12z 3km NAM Precipitation Depiction Monday Night Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Heavy Rainfall Expected Sunday Afternoon
As the initial arctic front moves through heavy rainfall will be likely for most Sunday afternoon. Around .5” of rainfall is expected, but some isolated locations could see more. Join me live tonight at 8pm where I will discuss this more in depth.
12z NAM 3km Precipitation Depiction Sunday Afternoon Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
