A chance for a few scattered snow showers and isolated freezing rain will be possible early tomorrow morning along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Though not significant, the timing of this icy weather could make for isolated slick conditions early tomorrow morning before the precipitation switches to rainfall. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km progression of the moisture.
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NAM 3km Precies Projection Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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NAM Projected Freezing Rain Totals
The Nam is projecting a light freezing rain event for Transylvania, Henderson, Polk, Eastern Buncombe, Mcdowell, Mitchell, Avery, & Watagua counties. This light precipitation will be different compared to this past week. As the light precipitation falls, temperatures right at freezing will aid ice accretion in certain areas along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. On this past Thursday heavy precipitation kept ice from accumulating, but with the light precipitation expected tomorrow morning… we will be dealing with an entirely different situation. Light precipitation can accrual on surfaces much easier compared to when the precip is heavy and dripping. The consistent mist right at 32 degrees is much more dangerous compared to a downpour of rain at 32 degrees. We will be dealing with the more dangerous type here. Below you can see the NAM projected ice accumulation totals. It only takes a couple of hundredths of an inch to make conditions very dangerous.
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NAM Ice Accumulation Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
Take It Slow Monday AM, Temps Will Warm
If you are worried about road conditions, wait until around noon when things will warm up around WNC and precipitation will transition to rainfall. Around the immediate Asheville area conditions could be a bit icy, but locations like Brevard & Hendersonville will stand a better chance of seeing slick roadways.
Isolated Snow Could Mix In
Looking at soundings for tomorrow morning across the area, and what sticks out to me is only a very small warm nose. That means that precipitation could very well begin as sleet or snowfall for your location. By 6am I expect most to have switched to a freezing drizzle or just rainfall, but some isolated minor snowfall accumulation of a a dusting-1” could be possible, especially along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Also, the Balsams appear to have a chance to see snowfall as well from this system as they are situated above that initial push of warm air. Check out the NAM 3km snowfall map below.
NAM 3km Snowfall Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Chances Increasing For Snowfall Next Weekend For WNC
I have my eye on a low pressure that will move through WNC next weekend with cold air in place. This has been something that has been lacking the past month on the models, but now we are beginning to see high pressure show up to our NE. This strong high could provide the cold air we have been missing when moisture makes it our way here in WNC. So, note that I have my eye on the possibility for some form of wintry weather again next weekend. Nothing is certain yet, in fact there might not even be a storm.. but the signal is there and models seem to be moving towards a more cold solution. I will keep you updated on this as we progress through next week.
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