Varying Model Solutions Paint Unclear Picture About Mid Week Frontal Passage
I have my focus on a front that will move through WNC beginning late Tuesday night and persisting through Wednesday evening. Some models show this precipitation falling on Wednesday morning as frozen, but others show the atmosphere being to warm for frozen precipitation to reach the surface. There are still many details to be nailed down with this system, but below I will detail out what the most recent weather models show.
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Much Needed Rainfall On Its Way
Dry conditions around the area have really raised fire concerns, and a Burn Ban is still in effect for all of WNC. We have seen several wide fires around the area, with dry conditions aiding the spread. With that said, a much needed couple of tenths of inches of rain are on the way. Two frontal passages will occur this week, and most locations will as least get some rainfall. On Monday models show a weak front coming through with a couple of tenths of inches of rainfall, and then another front early Wednesday morning. The Wednesday frontal passage is of most interest to me regarding wintry precipitation. Below I will show what the most recent models show, and give my reasoning of why I think isolated wintry precipitation could be possible in WNC Wednesday morning.
GFS Showing Rainfall, No Wintry Precipitation Except For High Elevations Above 4500’
Below is a gif of the most recent GFS model run (Sunday 6z) and what it details out for the week. Notice the double shot of rainfall, which is much needed! Below check out the sounding for Wednesday AM, I will compare this to the European and NAM models as well to show why some models show slight wintry precipitation.
GFS Provided by Pivotalweather.com
Check out the sounding below from Wednesday morning. Lets dive into this a bit. The GFS shows a much more moist environment on Wednesday morning and this will play key. Dry air will naturally cause a wet air parcel to cool, so with dry air in place, frozen precipitation melts slower as it falls through the atmosphere. The key here is that the GFS does now show the dry air. Other models do though and ill discuss that below.
GFS Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
European Model A Bit Colder
Current runs of the European model are 2-3 degrees cooler, and this will things very interesting, especially for those who live above 3500’ in elevation. Let’s take a look at the European model below, and ill also detail out a sounding for the atmosphere Wednesday morning.
6Z European Model Run Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
Now like above, I have pulled a sounding from the European model on Wednesday morning as well. Notice how this model is significantly drier. That is going to be key with the threat for wintry precipitation. The Euro is 5 degrees cooler at this time frame compared to the Euro, with the GFS showing a strong system with a more pronounced warm nose.
European Sounding Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
NAM Short Range Model
The NAM is showing a similar solution the European model with drier air in place, but it is still a bit far out to rely too much on this model. It is significant when the NAM shows a similar solution to the Euro so keep that in mind, but know that nothing currently is nailed down with this forecast.
Notice on the NAM sounding below for Wednesday AM that we see similar dry air like we saw on the European model. Will this be what comes to fruition? That remains to be seen, but the chance for snow flurries/sleet will be much higher if the dry air is indeed in place. Also notice how this sounding is indicating freezing precipitation in the lower right hand corner.
Wednesday Morning NAM Sounding Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
Video Update Coming
I will be putting together a YouTube video here in the next day or so and ill be releasing that giving my thoughts on the upcoming system. Be sure to subscribe to my page by clicking the play button below!
