Rain is back in the forecast for WNC Tuesday into Wednesday as the affects from former Hurricane Ida, which devastated the LA coast, moves through. Isolated locations around WNC will see heavy rainfall as the event progresses. Notice on the map below where I have highlighted the areas of concern for flooding. Notice that most areas who received significant flooding from Fred will be spared by Ida.
NAM 3km Rainfall Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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When Will Rainfall Begin
Below you can see the most recent run of the Nam 3km which shows the rainfall moving in early Tuesday morning, with several rounds to follow. Rainfall looks to move out of the area by mid day on Wednesday but it appears that gusty winds will stick around.
Nam 3km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Gusty Winds Possible
Winds will gust to 35mph Tuesday evening and into Wednesday morning as the Post Tropical Low passes by. Higher elevations will likely see gusts over 50mph, especially when the winds shift to a NW flow on Wednesday afternoon. Below you can see the Nam 3km as the bulk of the wind moves in.
Wind Gusts As Ida Moves Through Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Overall Impact Summery
I believe that there will be some flooding around WNC that is directly linked to Ida, however many ditches could overflow around WNC just simply because they have not properly been cleaned out form Fred’s rainfall. As you can see from the models above, rainfall will be limited around the immediate Asheville area, but a heavy downpour can still cause flooding. I had a home that I am remodeling flood near Asheville County Club last week due to a heavy rainfall and storm drains that had yet to be properly cleared. This is my biggest concern around the Buncombe County and Haywood County areas. Transylvania County could see 2”+ of rainfall from this storm and flooding will be possible again. That is the area I am most concerned about. I am also concerned about the Northern Escarpment area that include Blowing Rock & Boone. This area looks to get hammered by heavy rainfall that redevelops as the front comes of the Escarpment. This motion will cause upscoping into the Boone area and significant rainfall will be wrung out of this system. Areas like Lenoir & Boone are going to get hammered with up to 6” of rainfall. Please be mindful of this and be careful traveling around those areas north of I-40 tomorrow and into Wednesday! Turn around, don’t drown!
