Models Trending Toward Very Cold & Snowy Sunday
Flooding Rain Threat Has Diminished
We have had our eye on this for several days, and we are beginning to see a common trend of cold and blowing snow on Sunday afternoon and into Monday for all of WNC among global models. Temperatures on Sunday appear as though they will rocket to near 60 before the frontal passage occurs, then early Sunday afternoon as the front passes temperatures will plummet into the 20’s. Check out the depiction below of the GFS that shows how quickly the temperatures will change.
GFS Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Who Will See Snowfall?
Right now it appears as though most everyone who lives above 2000’ will see some form of snowfall on Sunday as this strong system passes by. Accumulation around the Asheville area is still very much in question, but the GFS model has been indicating it will be possible for the past 8 runs now, so it should be taken seriously. Below you can see the most recent GFS (6z) and how it depicts the system to move through.
GFS Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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European Model
The European model has been struggling with this solution and has now at the 0z run came towards a similar solution to what the GFS was showing. With the strong low cutting across the state of NC, this backside will have some power. It will also have access to the Great Lakes which haven’t frozen yet, so expect that to enhance the Northwest Flow. Below you can see how the Euro compares to the GFS.
Euro Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
Flash Flooding Threat Reduced
The threat for flash flooding appears to have subsided with only beneficial rainfall expected to fall now. 1”+ or so of rainfall will be likely around most areas of WNC with higher totals found on the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Totals of 4”-6” will not be found as the dynamics of this storm will setup more conducive to snow compared to heavy rainfall. Below you can see the snowfall totals projected by the GFS.
GFS Snowfall Map Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
Cold Week In Store For WNC Next Week
Below you can the European Ensemble and its projected temperatures for next week. It will certainly feel like winter!! The days of 60’s-70’s may be gone until March now so I hope you enjoyed them. We will continue to have frontal passages through the early part of January so the pattern will stay active. Be sure to subscribe to my YouTube page to get all the latest updates!
