The humidity will return to WNC on Thursday as a high pressure ridge that has been dominating the Atlantic breaks down. Deep in the Gulf, a tropical system will begin to pump moist air into the States. As that occurs, the high pressure will break down with showers and storms beginning to develop over the area later this week. Below you can see the most recent depiction of the GFS model. Look at how in the first frame the high pressure is built in the Atlantic. Then it quickly breaks down as meandering Tropical Storm Cristobal moves through the Gulf.
GFS Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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Notice how I stop the GFS at Hour 186. That is because there is extreme uncertainty with this system and how it moves about because a dominate upper level steering current is not manifesting itself. Therefore the storm will meander on a path of its own choosing without upper air influence. For more reference I have added the a frame from the most recent European model as well to illustrate the similarities and contrasts between the two.
European provided by Pivotalweather.com
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Main Takeaway
The main takeaway with this article should be that pop-up storms will be likely beginning on Thursday around WNC, and that threat could persist through Monday of next week. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km depiction of the showers on Thursday. Then a great deal of uncertain arrises regarding the direction that now Tropical Storm Cristobal. This could become a major story as far a the weather goes across the nation and could affect a wide range of areas next week. That includes the possibility of affected even here in WNC. When hurricanes move out of the Gulf, they tend to bring us at least moderate rainfall so I have my eye on this system.
Nam 3km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Tropical Uncertainty
NHC Hurricane Track Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Above shows the various model solutions regarding the track of Cristobal over the next week. Several factors are going to play into the steering of this storm, and an adjustment to the track is all but certain. Right now there appears to be no dominate upper level steering current, and that will allow the storm to basically meander through the Gulf. Now, does a steering current manifest over the next 7 days and push this storm into WNC? That remains to be seen, but I have seen this happen before. In my humble opinion, I think that significant rainfall could be possible from this storm across WNC if the track corrects to the East. We have seen this many times from storms, and when they move in from the Gulf, they funnel moisture into WNC. So just know that I am watching this system closely and will certainly update you when necessary.
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