Today (Wednesday), an Upper Level Low will move into WNC, bringing with it the chance for accumulating snowfall for some around the area. Locations above 3500’ will likely see 3”-6”+ from this heavy flow, and a dusting North of I-40 can also not be ruled out. High winds with this backside event will also be inevitable, and some gusts early tomorrow morning could push over 40 mph around Asheville. Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 20’s by tomorrow morning and it will certainly feel like winter again in the mountains of WNC.
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When Will The First Round Begin?
This snow will not occur for everyone, and if you live along the Blue Ridge Escarpment you will likely have to sit this one out. For NC/TN border counties though this first event looks to be impactful for your locations. Rain will switch to heavy snow beginning Wednesday afternoon as the initial upper level push moves through. This switch over from rain will only happen in certain locations, and it will likely be somewhat elevation dependent. Locations above 2500’ I believe will see the switch over on the initial band of precipitation. Then as backside moisture begins to bank up against the spine of the Apps, snow showers will fall again.. especially in elevations above 3500’. Below you can see the progression from the 12km NAM.
12km NAM Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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How Much Snow Will Accumulate?
With these type systems, there is usually a surprise somewhere in an isolated valley where a couple of inches of snow accumulates below 3000’. I could very well see that occurring tonight with this flow (I am looking at you Haywood County). As temperatures plummet into the mid 20’s by Thursday morning, persistent snow bands will likely coat some roadways above 3000’ creating slippery conditions. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km accumulated snowfall map. These totals are a bit high for the peaks, but a general 3”-6” appears to be possible from this flow. It also appears to be one of the better Northwest flow setups that we have seen so far for ski resort areas.
3km NAM Projected Snowfall Totals Thru Thursday Mid Day Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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High Winds Likely Through Friday AM
Winds with this beefy upper level low will really affect the majority of WNC as it screams through. Mountain peaks above 3500’ will take the brunt of these winds with gusts over 60mph, but locations around Asheville could still see gusts topping 40mph tomorrow morning. Winds will relax somewhat as Thursday progresses, but gusts over 30mph will still be possible thru Friday AM. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km image of possible low temps tomorrow morning.
3km NAM Wind Gusts At 6am Thursday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Temperatures Drop To Mid 20’s Thursday AM
Temperatures will plummet as arctic air floods the area early Thursday morning. These cold temperatures will aid snow streamers as they develop along the NC/TN border and push as far as physically possible. Somewhat moisture air, along with high wind gusts should propel these flakes out of the higher mountains and at least into the valleys North of I-40. I believe that snowflakes will be able to take advantage of this moist path laid down, and they will trail along the French Broad into Asheville sometime late tonight.
3km Nam Temps Thursday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Another Front Pushes In Friday Afternoon
That is correct, another shortwave front will push through in the form of a hybrid clipper type event for the mountains of WNC. Just how much moisture will be available is still very much in question, but this shortwave will take advantage of a cold trough laid down by todays system. That will increase the chance for snowfall for many around WNC as we move into the late hours of Friday. This system is going to very tricky to predict, so bear with me as I put together my forecast. It may be that I don’t get the best idea of exactly where the system will move until it forms on radar Friday AM. There is a chance for accumulating snowfall for many around WNC though. It will be on the light end, but nonetheless a chance. Below you can see then end of the 3km NAM run and what it shows moving over the mountains of WNC.
3km NAM Simulated Radar Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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More Details Needed For Friday/Saturday Event
I will need more information regarding just how much moisture will be available with the incoming wave. As short range models resolve this solution, we will see just how temps will affect the snowfall rates around WNC.. and just exactly where the best banding will set up. Check back soon for another update!
