A strong backside lobe of energy will move over WNC late tomorrow and into Thursday bringing with it the chance for accumulating snowfall for those above 3500’. Rainfall will move out of the area this morning and Tuesday will be the choice day of the week, but as a front moves into the NE cold air will rush in Wednesday night. Winds will also pick up around WNC as this front passes through, with gusts in the higher elevations above 4000’ pushing over 60mph early Thursday morning. Below you can see the projected wind gusts at 8am Thursday AM from the most recent Nam 3km.
Nam 3km Wind Gusts Thursday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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High Winds Around Asheville Thursday AM
As you can see on the map above, gusts to around 40mph will be possible as the work day begins. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 20’s early Thursday morning, and even some snow flurries could be blowing around. Below you can see the projected temperatures for Thursday morning courtesy of the most recent high resolution Nam model.
3km NAM Thursday 7am Temps Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Who Will See Accumulating Snowfall From This Round?
Mainly those north of I-40/US-74 and above 3000’ can expect accumulation from this event.. but even a dusting for valley locations north of I-40 cannot be ruled out. The low resolution NAM model has been very bullish that snow streamers will break containment from the high mountain peaks and push into the several valleys below, but the high resolution NAM does not see it that way just yet. Below I have attached the projected accumulation through Thursday AM per the most recent NAM 3km.
NAM 3km Projected Snowfall Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Notice how there is very limited accumulation for those locations that reside below 3000’, but for those above that and in favorable NWF locations.. you could really rake in the moisture. I looks for this model to increase snowfall totals over the next 36 hours, especially in favored locations.
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Another Round Of Snow Showers Possible Friday Afternoon
Several models including the GFS and European models indicate that another shortwave will run the trough Friday afternoon, and that could bring another chance for snowfall to many in WNC. These waves are not know to be high end snowfall produces, but can produce dustings + for a large portion of WNC. Below you can see what the most recent long range NAM shows regarding the shortwave moving in.
Low Res NAM Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Now compare the NAM with what the European model is showing, and this becomes something that needs to be watched. No it doesn’t look like much on the models, but these small little blips of moisture indicate a shortwave front moving over an environment where snowfall could accumulate much easier compared to late week.
Euro P-type Map For Friday Afternoon Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
Now let’s make one last comparison with the GFS model. I have made a GIF of the entire forecast from the GFS so you can see the progression of the waves. First the NWFS that moves in tomorrow night, then the trailing wave that moves in sometime on Friday. The key to focus on is that all models show this trailing feature.
GFS Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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Short Range Model Data Needed
We will need for the 3km NAM to get in range with this shortwave to get the best idea of what exactly will be possible, and that will begin to happen later today. I will continue to keep a watchful eye on this system and keep you in the know regarding the progression of both the Northwest flow, and the shortwave that moves through Friday.
