Models have been refining the track of now Hurricane Zeta, and it does appear imminent that the storm will track directly over WNC. This will bring excessive rainfall to all locations, and now I am becoming very concerned about the wind threat. Zeta is a fast moving storm, and it is going to slam right into the mountains of WNC from the South. This strong forward motion will increase the likelihood for high winds, and will also not allow the storm to weaken as most compared to a typical slow moving storm. Let’s talk about the possibility of high wind gusts.
Zeta Projected Max Wind Gusts Per Euro Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Gusts of 60mph+ Possible
We typically don’t see winds this strong in the mountains of WNC, but it isn’t everyday that we have a strong post tropical storm overhead. Coming from the south, these wind will be unique because the highest gust will be found along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. It will be a nasty couple of days up on The Blue Ridge Parkway as well, so please be mindful. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km and how it shows the storms progression.
NAM 3km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Highest Area Of Threat
The area that could experience the highest wind gust in my opinion will be along The Blue Ridge Escarpment. This will be the high elevation locations that experience those south winds first, and they will sort of undercut them. So, those areas take the brunt of the winds, which could gust as high as 90 mph in the highest elevations. Then, the winds will move down into the valleys below. Gusts over 60mph could be felt around the Brevard & Hendersonville areas. I would expect gusts to 50mph everywhere else. Below you can the max wind gusts late Thursday morning around WNC.
NAM 3km High Wind Gusts Thursday Morning
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Timing
Rainfall will move in from Zeta late in the day on Wednesday, and will persist through the day on Thursday. Several models indicate that a widespread 2”-3” of rainfall will be possible from Zeta all across WNC. Winds will pick up early in the morning on Thursday, and by noon things will be quite gusty around the area. It would be wise today to secure any outdoor accessories. Zeta is a quick moving storm, and will likely be out of the area by late Thursday or very early Friday morning. Below you can see the projected rainfall totals from the latest GFS model run.
GFS Precipitation Total Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Cold Coming This Weekend
All models indicate that a strong cold front will follow the exit of Zeta. Temperatures will drop into the low 30’s Saturday morning, and will only push into the upper 50’s on Saturday afternoon. It is going to be a chilly Halloween so bundle up!! Below you can see the 10 day temperature spread from the European model. Enjoy!
Euro courtesy of Weathermodels.com
