Several models are beginning to show excessive rainfall around WNC as the remnants of soon to be Hurricane Zeta move through. There is somewhat of a large spread currently on just how much rain will fall across WNC, but as of now it looks like most areas will see around 2” of precipitation. Below Ill give you my thoughts on where Zeta will track, and show you various model solutions that are currently being displayed.
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Zeta’s Track
Provided by The National Hurricane Center
After exiting the Yucatan, Zeta will quickly move through the Gulf of Mexico and head towards the Gulf States. It does appear that we will have yet another landfalling Hurricane in the Gulf region Wednesday. How strong this storm gets still remains to be seen, but it will be transitioning quickly to a Mid Latitude Cyclone as it collides with a front that stalls across the Plains. As these two merge, they will move towards WNC late Wednesday or early Thursday morning.
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How Will Zeta Affect WNC?
Heavy rainfall will move in from the Southwest beginning late in the day on Wednesday, and this will persist through the majority of the day on Thursday. It does appear that this will be a washout for most, so please make preparations for excessive amounts of rainfall, especially on Thursday! Below you can see the most recent GFS track with Zeta. Notice how it moves directly across WNC as it stalls somewhat. This could be problematic for those Blue Ridge Escarpment areas.
GFS Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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As you can see, Zeta is forecasted to become at least at Category 1 Hurricane. As it merges with the Arctic Front that is currently bringing a winter storm to many Plain states.. it will move towards WNC. This storm will not give WNC any type of winter weather though as we will be in the warm sector this time. The heavy rainfall will be the main story from this system, but some high wind gusts could be possible as well. Below you can see the most recent GFS precipitation totals through Friday of this week. Over 2” of rainfall is expected for most!
GFS Precipitation Total Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Now let’s contrast the GFS with the most recent European model. As you can see, the European model shows almost an inch less rainfall across the entire area. This is due to the Euro taking a more Tennessee Valley track with the low pressure instead of transferring it to the Atlantic like the GFS shows.
Euro Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Cool Air To Follow Front
Thats right, a cold front will eventually move through WNC this weekend after the rain from Zeta. Temperatures Saturday morning are expected to be in the low 30’s around the majority of WNC with another frost possible on Sunday morning. So a very mild weekend on tap for WNC, one in which you will need a coat.
Trick-or-Treat Forecast
Skies will clear on Friday and a nice Saturday appear to be in store! A slight chance for showers will be possible late Saturday or early Sunday, but I don’t see these as being too problematic. Little ones will need to bundle up though with temperatures expect to only top out in the mid to upper 50’s on Saturday. As the sunsets, WNC will quickly drop into the 40’s and upper 30’s! Below you can see the most recent Euro forecast for long range temps this weekend! Enjoy!
Euro 10 Day Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
