Temperature records could fall around WNC this weekend with many models projecting that the high temperature on both Saturday & Sunday could be in the very high 80’s or low 90’s. The record for May 26th(Sunday) at the Asheville Airport is 90 degrees, so if what models are eluding to comes to fruition this record could certainly be in jeopardy. Below you can see the projected temperatures for Sunday on both the GFS & Euorpean Models. Many locations across the Southeast could even push close to 100 degrees! Saturday appear to have a similar temperature spread, but some models are slightly cooler. This is unprecedented for late May, and one can only hope that this is not a prequel to what will follow this summer.
GFS Sunday High Temps Provided By Weathermodels.com
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ECMWF Sunday High Temperatures Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
How Long Will This Heatwave Last?
Almost all models extend this heatwave through next weekend, with temperatures in the upper 80’s or low 90’s projected through next Sunday. This could all change of course, but when high pressure like this gets vertically stacked… it usually takes a long time for it to be broken down. That is why the extended forecast still looks like a furnace. Below you can see the European models numerical projection through next weekend for temperatures. It is remarkable that this model is showing such consistency from day to day of near record breaking temperatures.
Chart Provided By Weathermodels.com
Scattered Showers Possible Thursday & Friday Afternoon
Short range models are indicating that scattered showers are likely for tomorrow & Friday around WNC, with pockets of extremely heavy rainfall. Below you can see the most recent run of the NAM 3km and it has Henderson County getting hammered with rainfall both Thursday & Friday, while Asheville barely sees a drop. Will this come to fruition exactly? Most likely not, but it appears that there will be a greater chance for storm development in Henderson County compared to Buncombe. Showers and storms though cannot be ruled out for all of WNC each day. Some locations are just in a more favorable location for development compared to others.
3km NAM Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Recap
Scattered showers possible for isolated locations both Thursday & Friday with over 1” of rainfall possible
Near record high temperatures projected for WNC Sunday, & several days next week
Heatwave could extend through next weekend with several days where record high temperatures fall
