The Severe Prediction Center out of Norman, OK has issued a high risk for severe storms today across Texas, Oklahoma, & portions of Kansas. Several violent long track tornados cannot be ruled out, and this will put many populous areas under the gun including Oklahoma City Metro. These folks are experienced with severe weather though and have properly prepared. Many schools districts in Oklahoma have let out class for today in order to minimize the threat for movement this afternoon around the area. Below you can see the High risk imagery that the SPC released, along with a probability map of where tornados could form. The SPC believes that in portions of W OK there will be a 30% chance of seeing a tornado within 30 miles of a given location. That is an extremely high probability! The atmosphere is absolutely juiced and there is almost endless fuel today for storms.
Model Data
Looking at the most recent HRRR, storms begin to develop around 2pm this evening and will persist through sunset. Large hail, tornados, and even long track tornados appear to be possible as the upper level low associated with these storms goes negative tilt. Below you can see the most recent radar depiction produced by the HRRR for 5pm this evening. I have identified 7 hook echos that are visible enough to be identified. This is a very dangerous looking radar depiction..
Other indices that point to tornadic development include the Severe Tornado Parameter or STP which measure severe different ingredients that produce tornados. Below you can see the most recent HRRR model projection of what STP’s will be this afternoon when storms develop.
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HRRR Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
An astonishing max of over 37 is projected!!! I usually wow at 7+, but 37 shows me that a very rare atmosphere will be in place, and an extremely large and violent tornado will be likely. So the main take away here is that a major severe weather day is in store for the Plains today, and it will likely make major news this afternoon. Please make sure that your family and friends in these areas are weather aware today!
