Moisture will move in from the Gulf of Mexico beginning late Thursday night, and that moisture will collide with a strong arctic high that pushes in cold air at the surface. This high appears to be strong and located to the NE, and that could create an icy situation for portions of WNC Friday AM. Just how quickly this high retreats will determine how long that surface cold air holds on, but many locations along The Blue Ridge Escarpment cold see some form of ice accretion. As models get a handle on this solution, ill do my best to pin point where exactly the freezing rain sets up.. or if anything frozen even falls from the sky. Models like the European model really limit the chance for freezing rain and warm up the atmosphere just as precipitation moves in. Whereas other models like the Canadian show a crippling ice storm form many in Central and Piedmont NC. The areas that are most likely to see icing are the CAD areas or “Cold Air Damming” areas. Below you can see the most recent GFS model at the onset of precipitation.
GFS Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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You can see that stripe of pink right around Buncombe & Henderson County early Friday morning. Are temperatures low enough for the rain to freeze to surfaces? Will the high be strong enough to our North to push cold air over your location? Those are the questions that will need to be answered over the next 48-60 hours as short range models begin to get ahold of the solution. Right now there is so much disparity among surface temperatures as precipitation begins, that’s its hard to make any determination about what will fall. Below you can see the Canadian model, and the widespread icing that it depicts.
GEM Model Forecast For Friday AM Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
What this model shows would cause serious problems, but currently it is the outlier and is the most extreme. Thankfully!
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Will Locations In SW NC See Icing
No.. In general locations West of Jackson County see limited icing because the surface cold air is blocked by higher mountain peaks. In fact, many valley locations in Jackson County miss out on these type icing events. Locations around Cashiers & Highlands could see a bit of freezing rain being right on the Blue Ridge Escarpment, but I am more concerned about locations to the east.
Locations Where Icing Would Be Likely If It Occurs
Locations right along the Blue Ridge Escarpment are the ones who need to pay attention to this system the most. After an arctic front blast through over the next two days, precipitation will build in and move over frozen surface temps. Depending on just how cold that surface air is will determine if the precipitation falls as sleet, freezing rain, or just plain rain. If you live in Old Fort, Marion, Morganton, Rutherfordton and surrounding locations on the Blue Ridge Escarpment you have the best chance for seeing ice accretion. Below you can see the GFS surface temperatures as the man precipitation moves in. These are very borderline, and if they trend just a tad bit colder this system could be problematic.
Friday AM surface temps courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Why Will This Not Be Snow?
As this moisture moves in from the South, so does a warm nose of air aloft. That warmth aloft will melt snow as it falls through that layer. A strong high pressure to the Northeast will funnel in air below the warm nose aloft, and that has the chance to refreeze the falling precipitation. Depending on how deep the frozen layer is will determine if the hydrometer refreezes into sleet or stays supercooled and freezes on contact with the surface. With that warm nose aloft, it’s really difficult for snowflakes to make it through without a bunch of dry air in between.
Uncertainty Remains
These freezing rain/sleet systems are very difficult to forecast, and can result in frozen precipitation falling in one valley, with temps in the upper 30’s in another valley 5 miles away. I will do my best to prepare you for what to expect so stick with Ashevillewx and I will have you prepared for whatever nature sends toward WNC!
