After several calm days around WNC, a pattern change will bring with it the chance for wintry precipitation late next week. An arctic front will move through the area on Tuesday night/Wednesday AM bringing with it the chance for high elevation (above 3500’) snow showers, then another system could move in on its tail end. This is where the models differ greatly. Below you can see the most recent GFS model run and it shows a shortwave system moving into a strong high pressure that is situated to our NE. The result is a wintry mix at the onset of precipitation.
GFS Precipitation Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Another GFS View Courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com
Differing Model Solutions
The European model on the other hand really holds back the shortwave and doesn’t allow it to plow into the high pressure like the GFS has shown for the past few runs. Below you can see the most recent European model run.
Euro Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
As it suppresses the wave, there is no real development that occurs onshore. The Euro keys on the second wave that could affect WNC next weekend. So there area basically two camps of where the models sit.
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Wintry Pattern Setting Up
Regardless of what occurs on Thursday and into Friday, a wintry pattern appears to be setting up in the long range with ridging occurring to our North out the the Atlantic. This will turn storms up the coast, allowing them to go negative tilt easier. So in turn, more cold air on the backside will be available, along with more lift. I believe that we will track several storms through the end of December, so make sure you are checking back with AshevilleWX frequently! I’ll have a video update regarding this system sometime tomorrow!
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