Here is my projected snowfall accumulation map for WNC as a strong Upper Level Low moves into the area with backside northwest flow moisture. This is an extremely complicated setup, but I wanted to give you an idea of what my thoughts are regarding accumulation around the area! Snow showers will begin around 6-8pm in the highest elevations, and those flakes may not make it down into the valleys around Asheville until early tomorrow morning. Depending on how much lift is associated with this upper level low, will determine just how far the flakes are being pushed out of the higher elevations.
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When Will Snow Begin?
This is a tough question, and will vary depending on your location and proximity to the NC/TN border. I expect elevations above 4000’ to begin to see snowfall sometime later this evening. My best guess it 6-8pm. For Asheville, it appears a lobe of vorticity will move through the mountains early Monday morning, and that will be one shot for accumulation. This flow will continue for over 24 hours, and I expect it to pick back up as the sun sets on Monday. Meaning that there will be a couple of chance for accumulation around Asheville. For locations like Waynesville, look for a few flurries tonight, then a better chance around 5-6am tomorrow morning. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km, and it extends the flow in some locations into Tuesday morning.
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3km Nam Radar Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Could Elevations Above 5000’ See More Than 8”
It is very possible that some location rakes in around a foot of snow from this event. Clingmans Dome, Roan Mountain, and even Mount Mitchell are prime locations for Northwest Flow snow and will really get hammered this evening and tomorrow. Below you can see the most recent snowfall map from the 3km Nam and it maxes out at 24” in the highest elevations. I usually like to cut that max in half, so a foot seems possible somewhere.
3km Nam accumulation map courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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High Winds Expected Gusts Over 40MPH Possible Around Asheville
Winds with this front will really pick up, and could gust over 40mph in some valley locations around WNC. Higher elevation locations could see gusts as strong as 65mph, and that could be accompanied with snow showers! Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km wind gust depiction at 11am tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will be a nasty day around WNC. Check back later this evening for a live update regarding the most recent model information!
3km Nam wind gusts courtesy of Weathermodels.com
