Rain showers are likely through the next 24-36 hours around WNC as a potent front pushes through the area. A few rumbles of thunder can even not be ruled out as the main line moves through tomorrow morning. Then the focus will change to snowfall potential. On the backside, a very strong upper level feature will accompany the moisture. Early Monday morning, an Upper Level Low will follow the main front, and really enhance the Northwest Flow along the NC/TN border. Below you can see the radar depiction from the most recent Nam3km, and as you can see the precipitation could last in the higher elevations through noon on Tuesday.
3km Nam Simulated Radar Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Upper Level Low Is Wild Card
These Upper Level Lows can create havoc with a forecast, and can very easily bust a snowfall forecast on the high end if the correct dynamics are present. Below you can see the feature that I am discussing moving out of the Great Lakes and slamming into the Appalachian Mountains. There is a really stout lobe of vorticity (atmospheric lift) that really hits the mountains of WNC hard early Monday morning. It wouldn’t surprise me to see heavy snow falling over most of the area for a short duration.
500mb Upper Level Low Charts Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
Here below is the surface precipitation depiction as that upper level features comes through. As you can see, wherever the dominate lift sets up will likely get heavy snow for an hour or so, even in the valleys below 2500’. Its hard to know exactly where that feature will move through at, but it does appear more and more likely that a stout lobe of an upper level low will move through the mountains of WNC sometime Monday morning.
Nam 3km Precipitation Depiction Monday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Will Snow Accumulate?
Yes it is possible that even valleys below 2500’ could see some form of accumulation early Monday morning. Models are not very bullish at this moment on anything more than a dusting below 2500’, but higher elevation locations above 4000’ could see 4”-8” of snow! Below you can see the most recent snowfall map from the Nam 3km. Take this map with a grain of salt, but it will give you a general idea of where the highest totals are expected. Usually we see more snow north of I-40/US74 compared to south, so I expect higher totals to be North of that dividing line.
NAM 3km Snowfall Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Will Snow Affect Roadways
Yes, in the higher elevation locations especially above 3000’.. icy roadways could be a problem. Please use caution. I believe that these icy conditions could even extend down into the valleys given the right orientation of the Upper Level Low moving through. That will be key, and will be something that I monitor over the next 36 hours. I will do a couple of live updates over the next two days, so stay tuned for those and I will provide you with all the information you need to know!
