As models continue to converge on a similar solution, it is becoming more and more clear that a very strong arctic front will push through the area sometime on Tuesday afternoon. This front could bring with it cold temperatures that haven’t been seen around WNC in early November since the early 1900’s. The record low for the 12th is 16 degrees set back in 1896, and the record low for the 13th is 13 degrees set back in 1911. This cold looks to move in late on Tuesday, so the Tuesday record appears safe, but some models drop us very close to the record around Asheville on the 13th.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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The Euro shows 16 degrees at the Asheville Airport Wednesday AM. In comparison, the GFS (shown below) only drops Asheville into the upper teens (19 degrees).. neither would break records, but the the Euro depiction would be very close. So, there is some disparity as to how cold we will actually get around WNC, but mid to upper teens looks likely for Wednesday morning of next week.
GFS Temperatures Tuesday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Will This Front Bring Snow To WNC?
That is the golden question right now, and with anafront type systems… they usually don’t work out on the front end for the valleys of WNC. The higher elevations though appear to see a quick change from rain to snow Tuesday afternoon. Then on the backside, northwest flow moisture will strain through the higher elevations along the NC/TN border. Winds gusting over 30mph will likely push some of these flakes even into Asheville. There are still many details that must be hammered out with this system, but for those in the valleys.. the backside appears to be the best chance to see snowfall at your house. Accumulation will be possible in the higher elevations above 3500’, but how much right now is really just too difficult to discuss. Below you can see the wind gusts projected for Wednesday AM around WNC. Gusts over 30mph would certain push northwest flow moisture into Asheville.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Some Wind Chills Below 0 Possible
Wind chills will plummet as the arctic front barrels through WNC on Tuesday afternoon. By early Wednesday AM negative wind chills are possible in high elevation locations, and single digit wind chills will be possible around Asheville. Please prepare for this cold by winterizing your home, and preparing to bring outdoor pets inside. Below you can see the Euro wind chill values for the area around 6am Wednesday morning.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
An Interesting Weather Week Ahead
Some models show some form of a Gulf Low developing late next week, but there is still extreme uncertainty. What you need to know now is that I have my eye on the pattern and will keep you updated on the potential for volatile weather late next week! Stay tuned!
