NWS Posts Winter Storm Advisories For Many In WNC
Courtesy of The National Weather Service
What Is The Advisory For??
As a weak front moves in cold air will be in place above 3500’ for freezing rain to fall. Ice could accumulate on trees and grassy surfaces, but roadways could also get a little slick where ice accretion continues through the day. Below you can see how the NAM 3km brings in precipitation over the next two days. Notice the pink that shows up around those high peaks.
How Much Ice Is Expected?
For many of you, there won’t be any ice at your home and you will only get rainfall from this initial push of moisture. We could however see locations above 3500’ see some ice accumulation. Don’t be surprised if the Blue Ridge Parkway is closed over the next two days or so. Below you can see the most recent ice accumulation map from the NAM 3km. Notice how most of the accumulation occurs above 3500’, that is due to warm air at the valley surfaces. This will effectively melt the freezing rain as it traverses to the surface.
NAM 3km Freezing Rain Map Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
Snowfall Possible From Northwest Flow Early Monday AM
Models ramp up the Northwest Flow moisture after the front passes through and some models indicate that even Asheville could get a dusting of snow. Most of this snow will fall after midnight of Sunday, and it should be gone by 10am or so on Monday morning. Slick roads in the high elevations, and even some valley locations north of Asheville could be possible. By noon though on Monday things should be getting normal around WNC and our eyes will turn to another storm that will move in next week.
NAM 3km Snowfall Map Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
Heavy Rain Weather Possible Next Week Model Uncertainty Remains
Looking ahead towards next week, all major models have Wednesday being a washout. In fact some models even have the precipitation starting out as heavy sleet or snow initially early Wednesday morning. All seem to indicate a very quick changeover though. Below you can see the most recent European model and what it projects for early Wednesday morning. Sounds at the surface around Asheville hoover around 35 degrees as precipitation arrives. Ill be watching to see how models trend over the next few days. The low track indicates that very limited cold air would be possible, so only an initial burst of wintry precip could be possible in my opinion. Check back soon for more information!
European Model Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
