Two Chances For Snowfall Around WNC Over Next 7 Days

A weak front will push through WNC on Thursday evening, bring with it the chance for snow showers especially on the NC/TN border above 3500’. I am expecting 2”-4” of accumulation for those above 3500’ and a dusting could even be possible for some valley locations. Then I am tracking a Gulf Low that will develop sometime on Saturday and move towards WNC late Saturday night. Below I will detail out both events and show you what the models are showing for each system.

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Thursday Night Storm

A weak low will move through WNC beginning Thursday afternoon. With cold in place, many areas could see rain switch to snowfall as the system moves through. Low end totals are expected around Asheville with a dusting to 1” seeming like a reasonable forecast as of now. For locations closer to the NC/TN border those totals will increase as NWF picks up on Friday am. Above 3500’ I believe 2”-4” of snowfall will be possible. Below check out the depiction from the 6z GFS.

European Model Thursday Event

The European model is less amped with this system and is not as optimistic about snowfall potential. However it does still have the threat for many around WNC. Check out the European model below, it shows a 1”-3” event for above 3500’ and then just a few flurries on the backside for Asheville. I tend to think the GFS has a better handle on this solution and looks similar to the NAM when compared.

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Saturday-Sunday Gulf Low

Models have been throwing around a lot of energy here recently in regards to a system that looks to move through WNC on Saturday night and through the day on Sunday. The GFS has a classic Gulf low track on its most recent run that hammers WNC with over a foot of snowfall. The European model is weaker with the system and a bit quicker, it also is late on the phase compared to the GFS that brings the big snowfall totals to WNC. The main takeaway here is that the threat for a significant winter storm is increasing for all of WNC this weekend. Below take a look at the progression of the system on both the GFS and European models. I won’t show those large snowfall totals that the GFS just spit out because it could cause confusion, but know this storm has the potential to be a large winter weather producer over all of NC.