Snowfall Chances For WNC This Weekend Increasing, Models Struggling To Nail Down Upper Level Low Track
Models are beginning to resolve an Upper Level Low that could cause problems around WNC this weekend. A lot of information remain uncertain, but on recent models, the trend has been for that Upper Level Low to track farther South. With a further South track, this would bring the potential for the surface low to be captured by the parent Upper Level Low. If it sounds complicated, that’s because it is! We have a ton of moving pieces with this one and it has boom or bust potential. For those of you South of Asheville though this is a pattern you can get snow in!
GFS Model
Below ill be showing what the most recent GFS model shows. As you can see, it has some potential for snow, but really bombs the system out once it exits WNC. The previous run (6z) had the ULL going right over WNC so there is some variability. Ill also attach below this the most recent GFS Ensemble that details out how the 30 member snowfall maps panned out on the 12z run.
12z GFS Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
GFS Ensemble Snowfall
12z GEFS Snowfall Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
As you can see above there is a wide variation of weather solutions that could occur for late Saturday & into Sunday. This is the time frame we are looking at. Earlier models suggested that this event would be a Northwest flow snow, but recent trends with the Upper Level Energy have lead me to believe that something larger could be on tap. For comparison lets check out the most recent European run (12z) below.
12z European Model
Below you can see the most recent European model. This models has been trending towards what the GFS has shown the past two runs. Notice how important it is for the Upper Level Low to go negative tilt before it arrives in WNC. That will crack back the moisture to a more favorable direction to enter WNC as snowfall.
12z European Model Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
Summary
There still remains a bit of uncertainty with this system. That being said, current trends are towards some form of snowfall on Saturday night and into Sunday. How much and where exactly it falls will begin to become the focus, but as of now I am still trying to determine if snow will actually occur. These Upper Level Lows are very tricky so bear with me on this forecast and ill do my best to get it correct for you by Friday evening!
