Snow Showers Likely For Many Around WNC Tuesday Night & Into Wednesday
If you are a snow lover, we are finally getting into a pattern that is much more conducive to snowfall around WNC. Our first system of note will move through on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. I expect accumulation above 3000’ or so, but it is possible that some lower elevation get in on accumulation under heavier Northwest flow bands. Locations like Maggie Valley, Waynesville, & even Asheville could see snow showers late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Below you can see the most recent model trends.
Models Show Northwest Flow Snow Showers Arriving Later In The Evening On Tuesday
Check out the NAM 3km below. It shows some impressive banding occurring along the NC/TN border where heavy show could fall late Tuesday and into Wednesday. There is still a good bit of uncertainty regarding accumulation, but as we get closer to Tuesday evening I will try and nail that down. As of now, this looks to be a very strong northwest flow that could take advantage of some high surface winds to push snowfall out of the high elevations and into the lower elevations. Sometimes I mention these showers breaking containment as in they push out farther into the valleys below. This occurs when winds are high and temps in the mid levels are very cold. We could see this situation develop. Check out the most recent NAM 3k run below.
NAM 3km Projected Radar Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Also here is what the NAM 3km shows for accumulation. Now remember this is only through the beginning of the event, but we also like to cut these totals in at least half as the NAM 3km tends to overdo.
NAM 3km Snowfall Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
What Are Other Models Showing
Below you can see what both the European model and the GFS models are showing regarding snowfall totals. Both show higher end snowfall totals for the Mountains north of Cherokee like Clingmans Dome & Mt. LeConte, but they also hint at flakes pushing into the valley areas below.
European Model Snowfall Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
GFS Snowfall Accumulation Through Wednesday Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Timing?
When will this system move in? There are a few chances for showers throughout the day on Tuesday, but temperatures will begin to plummet as the sun sets. Winds will start to pick up out of the Northwest as the system approach and that is what will determine how far the moisture plumes push out of the higher elevations.
Video Update Coming
Check back soon for a video update as we finally have our first real threat of snowfall and I will be putting out a full detailed forecast on the event!
