A very powerful low pressure will travel across the interior of the Untied States this weekend, and that will bring the threat for severe weather all across the Southeast. For Western North Carolina, I am somewhat concerned about the threat for flash flooding. The GFS is now showing a similar solution to the European model, which has depicted ample amounts of precipitation moving into WNC on Sunday afternoon & into Monday for several days. Short range model data will certainly be needed to determine the degree of threat with this system regarding severe weather in WNC, but what does appear possible is flash flooding. Below you can see the most recent projected rainfall totals through early Monday around WNC.
GFS Rainfall Totals Thru Early Monday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Will There Be Severe Weather In WNC?
The chances appear to be increasing for a strong line of storms to slam into WNC sometime late in the day on Sunday. As I detailed out in my last live update, we are receiving limited weather data right now due to very little plane activity across the US… so I will need a bit more time to nail this forecast down. There will be several key factors to focus on regarding severe weather across WNC on Sunday, but most importantly the sun will need to shine at some point to ripen the atmosphere. Some models do not show that happening with a stout wedge of clouds that builds in all throughout the morning over WNC on Easter Sunday. You can see that wedge here on the GFS precipitation depiction below.
GFS Precipitation Depiction Sunday Afternoon Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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This wedge that is present on several models will likely inhibit an extreme atmosphere from developing over WNC. With rainfall pushing out ahead of the main front, that will also dampen the atmosphere, so several factors at the moment appear to be limiting for WNC.
Deep South Tornado Outbreak Possible Sunday
Models continue to have a very moist warm sector developing out ahead of a very strong front across parts of MS, AL, LA, & AR on Sunday afternoon. With the Gulf being wide open, the kinematics appear to be lining up for a high end severe event. Currently the Severe Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk with a 45% hatched area for severe weather over portions of MS, AL, LA, & AR.
Map produce by The Severe Prediction Center
Looking at the dynamics of this system, and the idea of long track tornados comes to mind. In the past, we have had systems like this ejected across the midwest very quickly but it quite rare. If you remember back to April 27th, 2011 a similar low moved in a fashion like what is being modeled, and a very deadly tornado outbreak took place across the Southeast. With that in mind, many are taking the dynamics that are being presented by models very seriously.
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Overnight European Runs Cut Precipitation Totals
The most consistent model over the past 4 days has now began to drop precipitation totals from this event around WNC. Yesterday the European model was showing an excessive rainfall event with over 2” of rainfall inundating all of WNC, but now these totals have been tempered and the most recent run of the Euro shows only around 1.5” of rain falling across WNC through Monday morning. This is a trend to watch, and with so much difference among global model solutions, short range models will certainly be needed to hatch out further details.
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More Cold On The Way Next Week
Unfortunately for WNC gardeners, there is another cold shot on the way next week.. so you should delay planting out your tender veggies at least another week. Below you can see the most recent temperature spread from the European model, and it suggests temperatures in the 20’s could even be possible next Thursday morning.
Euro Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Plan To Cover Sensitive Vegetation Saturday AM & Thursday AM
If possible, it would be wise to plan to cover sensitive vegetation on Saturday morning and then again next week on Thursday morning. Temperatures tomorrow morning will dip to the mid 30’s as seen below on the NAM 3km.
Nam 3km Temperature Spread For Saturday AM
The outlook is rather cold over the next 10 days so putting out plants like tomatoes and squash should be ruled out. Check out Trellis Talk to find out what to plant next! I will be posting a live update soon later tonight or tomorrow morning regarding this threat so be sure to check back for that!
