The heavy rainfall is finally moving out of WNC for the most part and Northwest flow moisture will begin to move through by early tomorrow morning. An upper level low associated with this backside will make things interesting for many as winds get up, and moisture is strained out. Snowfall will be likely for most locations north of I-40 sometime Friday morning, and we could even see those snow showers push to isolated locations south of I-40. Elevations above 3000’ are likely to see 1”-3” with some isolated pockets of 5”+ above 5000’. A dusting to 1” can also not be ruled out for locations north of I-40 and below 3000’. Below you can see a depiction of the Nam 3k early tomorrow morning around 7am.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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High Wind Gust Possible Into Tomorrow
Winds could gust over 30mph in many locations as this upper level low moves over WNC. It would be wise to secure any outdoor accessories if possible tonight. Below you can see the most recent NAM 3km wind gust map at 7am tomorrow morning. As you can see gusts around Boone could reach close to 40mph in isolated locations, and will gust even higher than that as you rise in elevation.
Nam 3km Wind Gusts Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Who Will See Accumulation From This First Round?
Higher elevations (above 3500’) are where accumulation is most likely to occur, but I believe that snow showers will certainly be possible for many. Where those heavy bands break containment from the mountains is really difficult to differentiate, but we could even see surprise accumulation in valley locations as Friday commute kicks off (Haywood Co?). Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km snowfall accumulation through Saturday morning. It is important that I stop this before it shows the next event, which does show accumulation for most valley areas.
3km Nam Snowfall Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Trailing Wave To Bring Accumulating Snowfall Saturday Afternoon To Much Of WNC
This trailing wave will take advantage of the cold air that has already been laid down, and I believe that a small accumulating snowfall event will be possible for many. Locations in SW WNC like Franklin & Andrews appear to have the best shot at accumulating snowfall at this point in time, but some models show this precipitation blossoming. Below you can see the Nam 3km radar depiction Saturday afternoon.
Nam 3km Radar Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Who Sees Accumulation With Trailing Wave?
A whole different crowd compared to Fridays event will likely see accumulation from on Saturday afternoon. Several locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment could see a quick burst of snow like Brevard & Hendersonville. Locations like Franklin & Sylva also could see some form of accumulation with this wave, but I am still not certain if temps will support that. The column of air does appear to be frozen though so if the wave moves through it will likely at least drop a few snow flurries for many. Check back soon as I continue to analyze short range data. Below is the Nam 3km most recent extended snowfall map showing accumulation possible in many valley locations Saturday.
Nam3km Snowfall Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
