One more round of rainfall is in store for the mountains of WNC, and then a strong cold front will bring temperatures that cripple any early rising vegetation. Some high elevation locations (above 5000’ on the NC/TN border) will see Northwest flow snow from this frontal passage early Friday am, but as radiational cooling takes effect on Friday night, temps drop into the upper teens by Saturday morning. So, it would be wise on Valentines Day if you are out and about to bring along a heavy winter coat as temperatures plummet.
How Much Rain Is Expected In The Next 24 Hours?
Another inch or so can be expected for SW Mountain locations, and locations along The Blue Ridge Escarpment, but around Asheville I am expecting less than a half inch through the end of the week. This is a lot less compared to what models had previously shown, and that is a great thing! Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km total precipitation through Thursday morning.
Nam 3km Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Strong Winds Likely As Front Passes Through On Thursday AM
Short range models continue to indicate that very strong winds will be possible with the line of storms that moves through early Tomorrow morning. For the past several runs the Nam 3km has shown gusts over 50mph being possible around 3am in Buncombe County. Please secure outdoor accessories in preparation for these gusts! Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km peak wind gusts for 3am tomorrow morning. Notice how the total over the Asheville airport is 52mph! That is pretty impressive. On average these totals tend to be a bit high, but gusts in the mid 40’s certainly seem likely.
Nam 3km Wind Gusts Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Upper Teens Possible Saturday AM
The European model indicates that temperatures on Saturday morning could drop into the upper teens around WNC after the cold front move through. This would devastate any early vegetation that has made its Spring arrival already. If you have sensitive plants that are susceptible to frost, it would be smart to cover them on Friday night.. but I am afraid you face an uphill battle over the next month and a half. Below you can see temperatures per the ECMWF at 8am on Saturday morning around WNC.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Sunday Choice Day Of The Weekend
Sunday appears to be the best weather day for outdoor activities this weekend with highs expected in the mid to upper 50’s on Sunday afternoon and partly cloudy skies. Below you can see the most recent GFS model and its temperatures depiction for Sunday afternoon.
GFS Sunday High Temps Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Long Range Models Indicate Blocking
Pattern Setting Up
What is a blocking pattern? This is when a large high pressure moves down from the arctic, and moves in tandem with a low pressure to its south. The high pressure works as a sort of atmospheric blocker and does not alloy the low pressure to naturally move north. These patterns are more conducive to Southern snowfalls. That doesn’t mean that a snow will occur, but it does appear as though we will enter a somewhat cooler pattern to end February. For snow lovers, you need that cold to be moving in and out to increase the chance for snowfall. So, still 7+ days out, but this time next week I feel will be much more interesting weather-wise compared to this week.
GFS Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
