A weak Gulf low will move through WNC bringing a slight front end thump of snowfall for some, then after the front passes and the Upper Level Low begins to move through.. Northwest flow moisture will kick up. Below you can see my projected snowfall totals for this event on the map Evan Fisher has produced.
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Map Produced By AshevilleWX Team Member Evan Fisher
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Recent Model Data
Below you can see the most recent HRRR model run at the moment. Notice how it shows that stripe of precipitation making its way up the spine of the Appalachians… This will bring the first thump of moisture to WNC early tomorrow morning. Then around mid day, winds will switch and blow out of the NW. An Upper Level Low will push through the area and another round of snow showers will be likely.
HRRR Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Model Snowfall Totals
I have been keeping you up to date on the recent snowfall total produced by the NAM 3km and as you can notice from my last article, this run has increased that stripe of accumulation across Buncombe. These type signs must be taken seriously. They are signs that Northwest flow moisture will break containment and affect the lower elevations of WNC. This will occur due to very high wind gusts tomorrow night and into Tuesday. Gusts over 35mph will be possible around the Asheville area.
Nam3km Snowfall Map Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Surprises Possible
Don’t be surprised if you see snow falling early tomorrow or tomorrow night. This will be a very dynamic storm and it has been one that has been very difficult to predict. Make sure to report all of your observations to The AshevilleWX Weather Community on Facebook!
