Rainfall from a strong frontal passage is now exiting the area and trailing will be Northwest Flow moisture. As temperatures plummet over the next 24 hours, the moisture stream will enhance and snow showers could break containment of the Apps and push into valleys below. The most recent short range models are even suggesting some slight accumulation around the Asheville area. Below you can see my most up to date snowfall map that Evan has put together for us.
Map Produced By Evan Fisher
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Short Range Model Data
Below you can see the snowfall map that was just produced by the 6z run this morning of the NAM 3km. Notice how it has the stripe of snow even into Henderson County. That indicates to me that significant banding will be likely with the backside of this system. Also check out the depicted radar below for the next 60 hours.
NAM 3km Snowfall Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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3km NAM Radar Depiction Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Timing
Snowfall will begin the high elevations above 3500’ during the early afternoon hours and then as a stronger push from the Upper Level Low comes through, that snowfall level will drop to around 2000’. This should occur around 7-9 pm tonight. That is my best guess as to when the first chance to see snowfall around Asheville will be. Following this initial push, we will see several other burst of moisture.. but they many not have the strength of the initial push. Snow flurries will last around WNC through the early hours of Wednesday morning, and slick roads are very possible above 3000’. Below is what the short range HRRR models shows regarding accumulation by 8pm tonight. it will be interesting to see if this is correct.
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HRRR Snowfall through 8pm Monday courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Chances Decreasing For Snowfall To End Week
The chance for another round of snowfall appears to be dying down as models lose the look that they showed late last week. We will have a strong Upper Level Low to contend with so the chance is not zero for snowfall, but it is dwindling. Below you can see the 10-day temperature spread from the Euro. Check back soon for more updates!
Euro 10-Day Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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