I have had my eye on the upcoming pattern change for several days now, and we are beginning to see a bit of clarity as to how exactly the pattern change will unfold. First, a low pressure will move through late Sunday and into Monday bringing with it heavy rainfall for the entire area. 1”-3” of rain is to be expected. Then things get very interesting as the Northern and Southern Jet Stream phase over the Mid Appalachians. A strong deformation feature will develop along the entire spine of the Apps as the low pressure continues to deepen. This strong low pressure will stall over the Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon, really throwing that upslope snow into the Mountains of WNC. Some high snowfall totals will be possible from this system through Wednesday morning in locations above 3500’. Right now a good guess for locations above 3500’ would be 3”-6” of snowfall. Snow showers and a dusting of snowfall will be possible for all Valley locations around WNC as snow levels plummet Tuesday. Then the models differ greatly as to how next Thursday will unfold. First let’s discuss the threat for Northwest flow snow Monday thru Wednesday.
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Northwest Flow
WNC experiences Northwest flow snowfall when a low pressure enhances over the Great Lakes. The warm waters over the Great Lakes increase the updrafts associated with snow production over these areas, and that enhancement translate to more snowfall in the air. This translates as far South as WNC where those snow bands also benefit from upslope as they move up the Appalachian Mountains. Right along the border of NC/TN moisture is wrung out of the clouds, similar to how water leaves a towel when you twist it. Below you can see the most recent GFS model run that depicts this process occurring over WNC.
GFS Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
now you can compare what the GFS shows to how the European model depicts the system unfolding. Notice several similarities. This tells me that the models have a good idea on how this system is going to unfold. The Canadian model also shows this strengthening of a low over the Great Lakes and then snowfall moving into WNC. I haven’t shown the Canadian, but it is noteworthy to mention the similarities.
Euro Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Snowfall Totals For Round 1
Below you can see the GFS depiction for snowfall totals through Wednesday AM. This would equate to several inches in the highest elevations, and then a dusting in isolated valley area around Asheville. This is a very plausible solution. There are still some wildcards though with this forecast, and the main takeaway from this article today should be that there is a chance for snow showers Monday night & Tuesday even around Asheville. Then chance #2 for snowfall around WNC comes Thursday..
GFS Snowfall Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Round Number 2
Several models have a second round of snowfall potential around WNC late next week. Yes this is very far out to talk about, but these 1-2 punch systems happen fairly regularly here around WNC, and I believe that this pattern will be conducive to take on a similar 1-2 punch form. While time is still very uncertain, it does appear that another piece of upper level energy is going to drop down early Thursday morning. The GFS and European models are very far apart regarding their solutions currently, but the GFS now shows heavy snowfall breaking out all across WNC Thursday. The Euro on the other hand has a rain/snow mix for lower elevations and all snow for the highest elevations. Below you can see depictions of what both models show unfolding late next week.
GFS:
GFS Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
This GFS solution drops several inches of snowfall on the far SW Counties of WNC while most locations above 2000’ see 1”-3”. This timeframe here is when I think the chance for snowfall will be possible all across WNC. How exactly the storm unfolds remains to be seen, but this type of pattern has yielded accumulating snowfall to valley locations in the past. Now compare that with what the European model shows.
Euro:
European Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Conclusion
A high end Northwest Flow event with winds gusting over 40mph even in Valley locations around WNC is likely Monday through Wednesday. Rainfall totals from this front will be 1”-3” for most, then the backside will bring the chance for 3”-6”+ of snowfall above 3500’ on the NC/TN Border. Following this frontal passage, another piece of energy will run the trough and slam into WNC on Thursday. There is still great uncertainty as to how this energy will interact with a Gulf Low moving through. I will keep you updated, and look for a live update on Facebook soon!
