A stout ridge will develop in the Southern Atlantic Ocean and that will flood WNC with warm air on Friday and into Saturday. This warm southerly flow though is not a good combination when mixed with an approached strong low pressure system. Typically when this pattern comes to fruition, it spells severe weather for the Southeast. The timing currently for these storms to affect WNC still needs to be nailed down, but as of now the threat appears to be just after the sun sets on Saturday night. Heavy rain will be likely, with rumbles of thunder and flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Below you can see the progression of the GFS as the system moves through.
GFS Precipitation Depiction Through Sunday Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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How Warm Will It Get Around WNC?
Many models indicate that locations around WNC will push into the lower 60’s on Saturday afternoon before the front moves through. Below you can see the projected temperatures for Saturday afternoon per the most recent GFS model run. You can see the approaching from back in Eastern Tennessee that could bring a bit of severe weather as well.
GFS Saturday Afternoon Temps Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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How Much Rainfall Are We Talking?
Among major global weather models, there is a decent spread as to how much rain will actually fall. The European models shows around an inch or rainfall, whereas the GFS indicates that almost 2” of rain will be possible. The GFS solution would lead to flash flooding in portions of WNC. The Euro solution, while wet, doesn’t nearly wring out the moisture from the front like the GFS portrays. It will be interesting to see how this system comes to fruition. Below you can see both the GFS and Euro total precipitation.
GFS Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
ECMWF Precipitation Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Will It Ever Feel Like Winter?
In the short range, no.. Next week models show above average warmth for the area. But there is some hope in the long range. The European long range model is showing a cool down to end the month for most of the Southeast. So for snow lovers, the winter season is not over yet and there will still be chances for winter weather. Below is the short range temperatures projection from the European model. As you can see, it believes well above average temperatures could be on their way. This could break records in parts of the Southeast.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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That looks extremely warm! Nothing that I am looking forward too…. But on that same model, we see a temperature reversal in the long range for the Southeast. From the 26th of January to the 4th of February the Long Range European Ensemble shows below normal temperatures across the Southeast. The would be a time frame that would be conducive for snowfall. That being said, these models can reverse. Another long range model, the CFS doesn’t show this type cold… so snow lovers should be rooting for the European model to be correct. Enjoy the warm weather though and do something outside! Check back soon for more information.
