An Upper Level Low will push through on the backside of this event, and that should bring accumulating snowfall to those within 15 miles of the NC/TN border… especially above 3000’. Below you can see the Nam 3km radar depiction at 10pm tomorrow evening.
Nam 3km Precipitation Type Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Who Will See Accumulation?
This will be a somewhat typical Northwest flow snow event where locations above 3000’ close to NC/TN border receive 1”-3” with isolated higher totals, and then a dusting-1” can’t be ruled out below that. Taking a look at the Nam 3km snowfall map, there are some decent totals showing up in the highest elevations. Usually I like to cut these totals in half to give a realistic idea of what could be possible. This models is just getting ahold of the Upper Level Low, so it will be interesting to watch as it changes and resolves the solution over the next 24 hours.
Nam 3km Snowfall Totals Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Will Asheville See Flurries From This?
There are several things that I begin to observe when trying to decide if Northwest Flow snow will push all the way into Asheville. The first are how strong are the wind gusts at the surface. This is important because winds need to be above 25mph or so for snowflakes to be pushed out of the higher elevations and into the French Broad River Valley. So lets take a look at the most recent Nam 3km surface wind gusts around 2am tomorrow morning.
Wind Gusts at 2am Sunday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Winds will be gusting to around 30mph so it does appear that wind gusts will be adequate for flakes to push at least as far as Weaverville. Possibly farther. The next thing that I will observe is the dew point in relation to the temperature. The air has to be somewhat saturated for flakes to make it out of the higher elevations without drying up! Below you can see the Relative Humidity values which tell you how saturated the air is. For flakes to not dry up you want to see values above 70%. Indeed this model is showing Relative Humidity at 79% on Sunday morning at 2am. That is very interesting to me. With high wind gusts, and a dew point that is close to the actual temperature, these snow showers could even push into Asheville.
Relative Humidity Values At 2am Sunday Morning Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
Increasing Possibility For Flurries Around Downtown Asheville
So now that I have laid out the maps for you to dissect the possibility of snow in Asheville tomorrow evening, its evident that this is a complicated setup. Just as many of our weather systems are complicate (like today), tomorrows backend snowfall will be somewhat unpredictable. Many locations that missed out on snow today could pick up snowfall tomorrow night. Unfortunately for locations like Sylva & Franklin, this doesn’t appear to be your system. Moving back towards Asheville, locations like Maggie Valley, Waynesville & Canton could pick up a dusting to an inch with this Upper Level Low, and locations in the Northern Mountains like Blowing Rock & Boone could also pick up an inch. If trends continue, even Downtown Asheville could possibly see a dusting from this, but as of now I am just not certain.
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Spring-Like Temps Return To WNC
Are you ready for the upper 60’s to low 70’s again? That is right Sunday & Monday will both be extremely warm days as a ridge develops in the Southern Atlantic. This will push in unseasonably warm air to all of WNC and many locations will reach for the 70’s. This appears to be an extended warm up lasting most of next week, but rainfall will be back in the forecast to end next week. Below you can see the temperature spread for the next several days per the most recent European model.
Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
More Rain Likely Thursday
The rainfall will continue as a persistent stream of moisture from the Gulf continues to parade through. Looking ahead to Wednesday, Thursday, & Friday.. it appears that another soggy end to a week is on tap. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, so please don’t shoot the messenger, but another couple of inches of rain is on the way to WNC and flash flooding could again be possible Thursday & Friday. I will be sure to keep you updated, so check back here for more updates and have a great weekend!
