A weak low pressure is currently meandering along the Gulf Coast States and some moisture looks to move into to WNC late this afternoon. Upper level temperatures will be supportive of snowfall for many locations even in some isolated valleys. Ground temperatures in valley locations will be less supportive of accumulation, but I believe a few surprises could be in store. Below you can see a simulation of the most recent Nam 3km model run. As you can see, spotty precipitation will push in just before sunset, and with a nearly frozen column above… some locations could experience a switch from rain to snow.

Will There Be Accumulation?

Yes. Especially for locations above 3000’. a dusting cannot be ruled out below that North of I-40/U.S. 74, but I am cautiously optimistic. I am calling for 1-3” above 3000’ and a possible surprise below. Temperatures will be very borderline around WNC tonight as precipitation falls through the atmosphere. A slight warm bubble at the surface could keep rain from changing to snow in some locations south of I-40, but I at least think we will see some form of wintry mix north of I-40 this evening.

Weekend Rain/Snow Threat

There is still a chance for some form of snowfall around WNC on Friday night and Early Saturday morning in WNC as another front moves through the area. Wow what an active pattern! This will be the forth frontal passage in the past 7 days! With this weekend threat, there appears to be two periods where snowfall could potentially be possible for WNC locations. The first would be late Friday night or Early Saturday morning as a stout conveyer belt of moisture rotates into WNC. This will be associated with a surface front that moves at first along the Gulf, but then transfers to the Atlantic. As the moisture transport moves into WNC, temperatures will be above freezing at the surface. If this were to switch to snow, we would have to rely heavily on Dynamic Cooling (dry air cooling process) to produce Wetbulbing. Several models were showing this storm as a decent threat a few days ago, but since then most have pushed its development with a trailing upper level low much farther North. Below you can see how the Nam model changes some high elevation locations to snow as the initial surface front moves in.

Backside Upper Level Low

There is an upper level low that will interact somewhat with this surface front that moves through over the weekend. This ULL or upper level low appears to have a good bit of energy associated with it, and will likely be another chance for many in WNC to see snowfall. This will rotate through late Saturday night and into Sunday on the backside of the low pressure. Winds will likely gust over 40mph in many locations as backside moisture is strained out by the Appalachians. Short range models are not in range yet with this upper level low so expect some volatility with this upcoming forecast. With that being said, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to how this weekend storm will unfold. Below is a depiction of the possible moisture that will be available on Saturday afternoon, but as of now like I said, still great uncertainty. I’ll do my best to keep you informed, and give my best forecast. For warm weather lover, it appears a return to Spring like temperatures will great you early next week!

60’s & 70’s Likely Monday & Tuesday For WNC

Yes that is right, another Southeast ridge looks to build and that will likely bring excessive warmth back to the mountains of WNC and all of the Southeast early next week. Highs around Asheville on Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday will reach close to 70 degrees, so if you have outdoor activities you’d like to complete.. early next week will be perfect! Below you can see the temperature spread from the Euro over the next 10 days. That ridge does build early next week, but for cold & snow lovers that ridge will be beat down by the end of next week and more seasonable temperatures appear likely. For now though, it appears as though it will feel like Spring for most early next week. Enjoy!