Several long range models continue to illustrate a pattern conducive for snow over the next 10 days with multiple shots at snow showers through next Sunday. Details still remain somewhat blurry, but it appears that several pieces of energy will move through WNC in the near term. Below I will break down the various chances over the next week, and give my thoughts on when the best chance for snowflakes will be.
Threat #1 (Mainly Higher Elevations)
As I am writing this article (Friday evening), a front is moving over WNC. As this front clears out, winds will pick up dramatically around the area. Northwest flow snow showers will also be possible as backside moisture banks up against the Appalachians. 1”-3” of snow will be possible for locations above 4000’, and even a few flurries cannot be ruled out for Asheville Saturday night & into Sunday. Below you can see a depiction of the NAM.
NAM Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
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Threat #2
Early Monday morning a low pressure will begin to develop on the tail end of a cold front after it passes through WNC. These type events in the past have been know to produce surprise 1”-3” events with cold already in place. On Monday morning upper level temperatures appear to be somewhat supportive of snowfall for many locations around the area. I am watching this system very closely because it could cause problems on the roadways as rush hour begins. There are no certainties with this threat, but know that several models including the European and GFS show some form of snow falling around WNC early Monday AM. Below you can see a depiction of the NAM model as precipitation moves in Monday AM.
NAM Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
Watch for another update soon on this particular system. I am very interesting in how it will progress because temperatures will be very close for snowfall in several areas. This will include valley locations like Asheville, Waynesville, Sylva, & even possibly Franklin. So, a decent chance for many snow lovers here in the mountains of WNC to see snow falling from the sky. Nothing is set in stone with this one though yet, and even if it doens’t pan out, there will be two other chances as we progress towards next weekend.
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Threat #3
Wednesday evening another weak low pressure will move along the Gulf of Mexico, and overrunning precipitation could move into WNC. The Canadian model shows cold air in place, and no real warm nose with this system. That could potential be a recipe for another weak snowfall event around WNC. Of course short range models will need to get ahold of this system to really resolve the details. Below you can see the Canadian model and what it depicts for mid next week.
GEM Model Courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com
Likewise, below is the GFS model at the same time period. You can see it does not blossom the precipitation shield like the Canadian Model shows. These small details are crucial to making a forecast for WNC and I will need more information before any certainties can be reached.
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Threat #4 (Massive Uncertainty Here)
Most all long range global models have hinted at the possibility for a large East Coast Snowstorm at some point next weekend. Usually I don’t mention threats this far out, but there have been several runs where a strong phasing low pressure has dropped lots of precipitation somewhere along the East Coast. What you need to know right now is that a very strong system appears to be down the pipeline, and it bears watching. There could be some wild snowfall maps produced by models over the next week, but i’ll do my best to keep a level head and forecast to the best of my abilities as we progress through this next week.
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