As an arctic front will finally push through the area bringing down winter like temperatures for the first time since mid November. This front could have a few snow flurries associated with its passage, but I don’t not believe that anything too impactful should be expected. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km temperature depiction for Tuesday Morning, and when you walk outside you will certainly feel it!
3km Nam Temps Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Will There Be Snow With This Arctic Front
Most will not see anything from this, but the higher elevations could pick up a dusting to 1” as the upper level disturbance pushes through. Locations above 4000’ on the NC/TN border have a slight chance to see snowfall late Monday night or early Tuesday Morning. This should not add up to meaningful accumulation though that would cause extensive roadway problems. The main story will be the cold and the gusty winds around WNC. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km depiction of the wind gusts possible on Tuesday am. Gusts over 25mph will be likely, and with the temps in the teens, windchills will dip close to zero around Asheville. Here is a look at the potential wind gust around WNC.
Wind Gusts From 3km NAM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
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Negative Wind Chills Possible Above 3500’ Monday & Tuesday Night
As the winds pick up on the backside of this upper level low passage, wind chills around WNC will dip below zero for some. This will certainly feel like a shock to the system after the above average January we have had so far this year. Please be sure to bring in pets from outside, and it would be wise to secure things outside to withstand the gusty winds. Below you can see the most recent Nam 3km wind chill depiction on early Tuesday Morning.
Wind Chill Temps Tuesday AM Courtesy of Weathermodels.com
as you can see, widespread single digit wind chills will be likely Tuesday am and it will be an extremely cold morning to stand at the bus stop. Please be sure to plan accordingly.
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Long Range Models Indicate Another Wet Weekend Next Week
Yep, unfortunately this will make it 8 out of the last 9 (I think) weekends with measurable precipitation. There are still lots of details to hammer down about this frontal passage that will move through next weekend, but just know that I have my eye on the potential for another wet event. Some models have some form of frozen precipitation associated, but it is really all going to depend on the track of the low pressure, and when the upper level streams phase. What does appear certain is that the warm 60 & 70 degree days are gone for the time being. Most models only show a high over the next 10 days in the mid 50’s for WNC. Below you can see the progression of the European model with this long range system that will affect WNC this weekend. It cuts the low up through the Ohio valley, before phasing the streams off the East Coast.
Courtesy of Pivotalweather.com
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Now compare that with what ICON (German) models show. As you can see below, this model allow the Gulf Low to dominate, and the Northern portion of the Jet Stream is pulled down. That allows the Upper Level Low to dip under the Apps and puts WNC in play for some form of wintry weather. Currently I am siding with the Euro until it loses its cutter look, but I have to admit that a few Euro ensemble members showed the dominate Gulf Low so we could be seeing a trend. As for now, just know that I am watching the system, and will update you if necessary regarding how it will unfold!
ICON Model Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
