A few scattered showers cannot be ruled out around WNC today as a stubborn surface front finally makes its way through the area. These do not appear to have severe characteristic, but the possibility for some thunder and lightning cannot be ruled out.
Looking Ahead
Wednesday and Thursday look to be nice outdoor days around WNC with temperatures in the mid to upper 60’s both days. Clouds will begin to build though through the day on Thursday and rainfall will be likely again early Friday morning. This front will be associated with the large snowstorm that will be affecting the Midwest, so some severe weather cannot be ruled out.. but it’s still too far in advance to determine how strong storms will be. Below you can see the most recent 12km NAM run. As you can see, some showers are possible today, but then another front spins up over the midwest, and a branch of severe weather forms off of it Thursday afternoon across TN.
6z 12km NAM surface reflectivity courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com
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How Much Rain Thursday Night Into Friday?
It’s still a little far out, but most models show over a half inch of rainfall. Some models have higher totals, but with these lines on the tail ends of low pressures.. it’s difficult to forecast exact totals until a day or so out. Even yesterday, I was expecting more rainfall.. but cloud cover during the day never lifted and strong storms over WNC never materialized. A bit more sun would have added more fuel to the storms, and a higher chance for hail would have existed. So check back soon for another update, and know there is a slight chance for storm development moving into Friday.
